Offense#39
+4.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.17 #60 FBSSuccess rate40.9% #86 FBS
Pac-12 · #36 of 138
Boise State
Implied Strength+8.3vs. FBS average · ±3.2
Record1–1through completed games
Playoff Odds41%make the 12-team field
Conference Title53%win Pac-12
Strength of Schedule73rdof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. South DakotaWeek 3 · OV Line BOIS -28.5 · 97% win chance →Toughest remaining test#63 San Diego StateWeek 12 · 77% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#40
+4.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.10 #42 FBSSuccess rate allowed35.3% #8 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Boise State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 8–3 (8.3 expected wins), with a 41% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 9 winsMedian 8 winsCentral 80% 7–10 winsBowl eligible 97.6%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
40.7%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached40.7% total
Auto-bid37.8%
At-large2.8%
Outside field59.3%
Conference title53.1%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Boise State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production66.3%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class121stof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production59thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.2Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Boise State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS56%10–8–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.2 pts42% inside 3 points · 8 of 19
Factor coverage47%9 of 19 games
Factor signals89% aligned8 of 9 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample19 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Boise State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 4 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 100%4 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 4 | 0.9 pts toward Boise State | 75%3 of 4 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 19 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. UNLVHome | Boise State -10 | Boise State -6 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.1 pts toward opponents | W 38–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W14 | at Utah StateAway | Boise State -5 | Boise State -1.5 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 25–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Colorado StateHome | Boise State -21.5 | Boise State -17.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 49–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | at San Diego StateAway | Boise State -5.5 | Boise State +2 | 7.7 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Boise State | 9.4 pts toward opponents | L 7–17 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Fresno StateHome | Boise State -18.5 | Boise State -17.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at NevadaAway | Boise State -21.5 | Boise State -21 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward Boise State | W 24–3 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. UNLVHome | Boise State -13 | Boise State -13 | 0.1 pts toward Boise State | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Boise State | W 56–31 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. New MexicoHome | Boise State -17.5 | Boise State -14.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 41–25 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at Notre DameAway | Boise State +19.5 | Boise State +21.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 7–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. App StateHome | Boise State -18.5 | Boise State -16.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 47–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at Air ForceAway | Boise State -6 | Boise State -11 | 5.1 pts toward Boise State | 1.8 pts toward Boise State | 3.3 pts toward Boise State | W 49–37 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Eastern WashingtonHome | Boise State -25.5 | Boise State -33.5 | 7.9 pts toward Boise State | 1.6 pts toward Boise State | 6.3 pts toward Boise State | W 51–14 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at South FloridaAway | Boise State -6.5 | Boise State -5.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 7–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W14 | vs. Fresno StateHome | Boise State -7.5 | Boise State -3 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.5 pts toward opponents | L 16–28 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. BYUHome | Boise State -8.5 | Boise State -9.5 | 1.1 pts toward Boise State | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Boise State | L 28–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at Air ForceAway | Boise State +6.5 | Boise State +2.5 | 4.2 pts toward Boise State | 1.8 pts toward Boise State | 2.5 pts toward Boise State | W 19–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. Fresno StateHome | Boise State -7 | Boise State -10.5 | 3.7 pts toward Boise State | None identified | 3.7 pts toward Boise State | W 40–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. UT MartinHome | Boise State -24.5 | Boise State -25 | 0.4 pts toward Boise State | 1.1 pts toward Boise State | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 30–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | at Oregon StateAway | Boise State -3.5 | Boise State +1.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward opponents | L 17–34 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 19 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.