South Dakota at Boise State

Week 3 · Sep 19Albertsons Stadium · Boise, ID

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineBoise State -28.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusBoise State -287-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 9:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward South DakotaExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?South Dakota 24 · Boise State 38
Pregame OV Line
Boise State -28.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Boise State -28
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Boise State by 14

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
South Dakota 2.6%Boise State 97.4%

Compare Teams

South DakotaVSBoise State

Model View

Overall Rating—+12.4 · #32
Offense Rating—+6.0
Defense Rating—+6.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.17
Offense Success Rate—40.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed—35.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—8.2
Playoff Odds—74.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank—74th