Offense#105
-4.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.12 #95 FBSSuccess rate41.2% #82 FBS
Pac-12 · #86 of 138
San Diego State
Implied Strength-5.5vs. FBS average · ±2.6
Record4–5through completed games
Bowl Eligibility3%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule70thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Utah StateWeek 11 · OV Line SDSU +0.5 · 49% win chance →Toughest remaining test#32 Boise StateWeek 12 · 6% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 4.4 rating points.
Defense#72
-0.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed-0.02 #3 FBSSuccess rate allowed35.4% #9 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How San Diego State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–6 (4.5 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 4 winsMedian 5 winsCentral 80% 4–5 winsBowl eligible 3.4%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for San Diego State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production98.7%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class82ndof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production46thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.1Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Portland StateFCS
OV Win<0.01%20Spread:SDSU -40.5vs.SDSU -38.5
1 FactorPortland State at San Diego State · San Diego, CA · Snapdragon Stadium
Final · Sep 19Suggested side did not cover
James Madison at San Diego State · San Diego, CA · Snapdragon Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered
Texas State at San Diego State · San Diego, CA · Snapdragon Stadium
Final · Oct 10Suggested side did not cover
San Diego State at Oregon State · Corvallis, OR · Reser Stadium
Final · Oct 17Suggested side did not cover
Fresno State at San Diego State · San Diego, CA · Snapdragon Stadium
Final · Oct 24Suggested side did not cover
San Diego State at Colorado State · Fort Collins, CO · Canvas Stadium
Final · Oct 31Suggested side did not cover
Washington State at San Diego State · San Diego, CA · Snapdragon Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
San Diego State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS75%9–3 against consensus
Average line gap4.4 pts50% inside 3 points · 6 of 12
Factor coverage25%3 of 12 games
Factor signals33% aligned1 of 3 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in San Diego State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward San Diego State | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at New MexicoAway | San Diego State +1 | San Diego State -1.5 | 2.4 pts toward San Diego State | None identified | 2.4 pts toward San Diego State | L 17–23 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. San José StateHome | San Diego State -11 | San Diego State -10 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 25–3 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Boise StateHome | San Diego State +5.5 | San Diego State -2 | 7.7 pts toward San Diego State | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 9.4 pts toward San Diego State | W 17–7 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at Hawai'iAway | San Diego State -3.5 | San Diego State -6.5 | 3.1 pts toward San Diego State | None identified | 3.1 pts toward San Diego State | L 6–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. WyomingHome | San Diego State -9 | San Diego State -10 | 1.0 pts toward San Diego State | None identified | 1.0 pts toward San Diego State | W 24–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Fresno StateAway | San Diego State +3 | San Diego State -3 | 6.1 pts toward San Diego State | None identified | 6.1 pts toward San Diego State | W 23–0 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at NevadaAway | San Diego State -4 | San Diego State -6.5 | 2.3 pts toward San Diego State | None identified | 2.3 pts toward San Diego State | W 44–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Colorado StateHome | San Diego State -6 | San Diego State -4.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 45–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Northern IllinoisAway | San Diego State -4 | San Diego State -1.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 6–3 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. CaliforniaHome | San Diego State +9 | San Diego State +14 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward San Diego State | 5.9 pts toward opponents | W 34–0 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | at Washington StateAway | San Diego State -13 | San Diego State +2.5 | 15.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 15.1 pts toward opponents | L 13–36 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Stony BrookHome | San Diego State -14 | San Diego State -19.5 | 5.5 pts toward San Diego State | 0.8 pts toward San Diego State | 4.7 pts toward San Diego State | W 42–0 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.