Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySan Diego State at Colorado State
Week 8 · Oct 24Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
San Diego State -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
San Diego State -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSan Diego State -111-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
San Diego State -111-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Colorado StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after losing its previous lined game by 39 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Colorado State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Colorado State lost the most recent meeting with San Diego State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Colorado State lost the most recent meeting with San Diego State by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
San Diego State was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
San Diego State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
San Diego State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
San Diego State is favored in a game with a consensus total of 63.5.
Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
San Diego State is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?San Diego State 49 · Colorado State 56
- Pregame OV Line
- San Diego State -2
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- San Diego State -1
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Colorado State by 7
Observed 4h 17m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSan Diego State -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
San Diego State -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSan Diego State -2.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
San Diego State -2.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
San Diego State 56.7%Colorado State 43.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · San Diego State -1
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 24.