Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
San Diego State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyJames Madison at San Diego State
Week 3 · Sep 19Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA
Matchup View
Opening Line
San Diego State -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
San Diego State -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusSan Diego State -2.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
San Diego State -2.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward James MadisonExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
San Diego State enters after losing its previous lined game by 18 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
San Diego State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
James Madison enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
James Madison ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
James Madison is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineSan Diego State -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
San Diego State -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSan Diego State -2Based on 2 books
San Diego State -2Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
James Madison 30.6%San Diego State 69.4%
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Market consensus · San Diego State -2.5
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