Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
San Diego State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTexas State at San Diego State
Week 5 · Oct 3Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
San Diego State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
San Diego State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Texas State -9.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Texas State -9.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~10.5 pts toward Texas StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
San Diego State enters after losing its previous lined game by 25 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
San Diego State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
San Diego State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
San Diego State has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
San Diego State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Texas State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Texas State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Texas State 29 · San Diego State 31
- Pregame OV Line
- San Diego State -1
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Texas State -9.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- San Diego State by 2
Observed 14h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSan Diego State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
San Diego State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTexas State -4.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Texas State -4.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Texas State 47.2%San Diego State 52.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Texas State -9.5
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