Offense#51
+2.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.31 #10 FBSSuccess rate45.8% #29 FBS
Pac-12 · #69 of 138
Texas State
Implied Strength-0.4vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility49%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule71stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. North TexasWeek 3 · OV Line TXST -8.5 · 74% win chance →Toughest remaining test#36 Boise StateWeek 9 · 19% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 5.8 rating points.
Defense#89
-3.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.16 #71 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.1% #61 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Texas State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–6 (5.4 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 6 winsMedian 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 48.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
1.2%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached1.2% total
Auto-bid1.1%
At-large0.1%
Outside field98.8%
Conference title9.0%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Texas State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production76.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class81stof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production83rdof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.3Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Texas State at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Texas State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS33%4–8 against consensus
Average line gap2.2 pts75% inside 3 points · 9 of 12
Factor coverage33%4 of 12 games
Factor signals100% aligned4 of 4 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Texas State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 2 | 1.3 pts toward Texas State | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 1.4 pts toward Texas State | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. South AlabamaHome | Texas State -10.5 | Texas State -9.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 49–26 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. UL MonroeHome | Texas State -18.5 | Texas State -20.5 | 2.2 pts toward Texas State | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Texas State | W 31–14 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Southern MissAway | Texas State +4 | Texas State +3 | 1.1 pts toward Texas State | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Texas State | W 41–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at LouisianaAway | Texas State -2 | Texas State -3.5 | 1.3 pts toward Texas State | 1.0 pts toward Texas State | 0.3 pts toward Texas State | L 39–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. James MadisonHome | Texas State +4 | Texas State +7.5 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.7 pts toward opponents | L 20–52 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at MarshallAway | Texas State -4 | Texas State -3 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 37–40 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. TroyHome | Texas State -12 | Texas State -7.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 41–48 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at Arkansas StateAway | Texas State -8.5 | Texas State -14 | 5.7 pts toward Texas State | 1.7 pts toward Texas State | 4.0 pts toward Texas State | L 30–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. NichollsHome | Texas State -30.5 | Texas State -32.5 | 2.0 pts toward Texas State | 1.4 pts toward Texas State | 0.6 pts toward Texas State | W 35–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | at Arizona StateAway | Texas State +15.5 | Texas State +18.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | L 15–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at UTSAAway | Texas State +4.5 | Texas State +4.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 43–36 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Eastern MichiganHome | Texas State -15.5 | Texas State -14 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 52–27 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.