Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUTSA at Texas State
Week 2 · Sep 12Bobcat Stadium (TX) · San Marcos, TX
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Texas State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusTexas State -1.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Texas State -1.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Texas StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State enters after losing its previous lined game by 52 points.
Studied in 681 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 535 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
Texas State is favored in a game with a consensus total of 66.2.
Studied in 288 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Texas State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
UTSA ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
UTSA lost the most recent meeting with Texas State.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
UTSA is the underdog in a matchup played at least 5 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 901 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
UTSA faces materially stronger Texas in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?UTSA 31 · Texas State 26
- Pregame OV Line
- Texas State -1
- Final recorded market
- Texas State -1.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- UTSA by 5
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTexas State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTexas State -0.5Based on 2 books
Texas State -0.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
UTSA 46.7%Texas State 53.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Texas State -1.5
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