Offense#58
+1.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.20 #43 FBSSuccess rate43.9% #48 FBS
American Athletic · #64 of 138
UTSA
Implied Strength+1.2vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds19%make the 12-team field
Conference Title25%win American Athletic
Strength of Schedule77thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat TexasWeek 3 · OV Line UTSA +29 · 1% win chance →Toughest remaining test#3 TexasWeek 3 · 1% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.8 rating points.
Defense#66
-0.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.14 #58 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.0% #30 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How UTSA's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (8.5 expected wins), with a 19% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 9 winsCentral 80% 6–10 winsBowl eligible 96.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
19.0%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached19.0% total
Auto-bid16.6%
At-large2.4%
Outside field81.0%
Conference title25.0%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for UTSA. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production66.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class98thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production79thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.8Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
UTSA through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS55%6–5 against consensus
Average line gap1.9 pts82% inside 3 points · 9 of 11
Factor coverage27%3 of 11 games
Factor signals67% aligned2 of 3 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in UTSA games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 1.7 pts toward UTSA | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W13 | vs. East CarolinaHome | UTSA +2.5 | UTSA +2 | 0.5 pts toward UTSA | None identified | 0.5 pts toward UTSA | W 58–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at CharlotteAway | UTSA -18 | UTSA -17 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 28–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at South FloridaAway | UTSA +12.5 | UTSA +14 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 23–55 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. TulaneHome | UTSA +4 | UTSA +6 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 48–26 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at North TexasAway | UTSA +6.5 | UTSA +4 | 2.3 pts toward UTSA | None identified | 2.3 pts toward UTSA | L 17–55 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. RiceHome | UTSA -15 | UTSA -9.5 | 5.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.7 pts toward opponents | W 61–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at TempleAway | UTSA -6.5 | UTSA -6.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 21–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at Colorado StateAway | UTSA -6.5 | UTSA -5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 17–16 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Incarnate WordHome | UTSA -16.5 | UTSA -21 | 4.5 pts toward UTSA | None identified | 4.5 pts toward UTSA | W 48–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Texas StateHome | UTSA -4.5 | UTSA -4.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 36–43 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at Texas A&MAway | UTSA +21.5 | UTSA +23.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward UTSA | 3.7 pts toward opponents | L 24–42 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.