Offense#55
+2.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.30 #15 FBSSuccess rate49.0% #9 FBS
American Athletic · #70 of 138
Navy
Implied Strength-0.7vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility85%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule81stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat UABWeek 4 · OV Line NAVY -11.5 · 81% win chance →Toughest remaining test#5 Notre DameWeek 9 · 2% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 4.7 rating points.
Defense#86
-2.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.21 #110 FBSSuccess rate allowed40.4% #54 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Navy's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (7.1 expected wins), with a 3% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 84.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
2.9%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached2.9% total
Auto-bid2.5%
At-large0.4%
Outside field97.1%
Conference title12.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
14% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Navy in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production13.8%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class136thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production48thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.0Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Towson at Navy · Annapolis, MD · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Navy through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS36%4–7 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts55% inside 3 points · 6 of 11
Factor coverage45%5 of 11 games
Factor signals50% aligned3 of 6 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Navy games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 4 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 75%3 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.9 pts toward Navy | 0%0 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at MemphisAway | Navy +8.5 | Navy +3.5 | 4.8 pts toward Navy | None identified | 4.8 pts toward Navy | W 28–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. South FloridaHome | Navy +6.5 | Navy +8.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 41–38 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at Notre DameAway | Navy +30.5 | Navy +30.5 | 0.1 pts toward Navy | 4.1 pts toward Navy | 4.0 pts toward opponents | L 10–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W10 | at North TexasAway | Navy +8 | Navy +6.5 | 1.4 pts toward Navy | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Navy | L 17–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Florida AtlanticHome | Navy -18 | Navy -14.5 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Navy | 4.5 pts toward opponents | W 42–32 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at TempleAway | Navy -8.5 | Navy -10 | 1.3 pts toward Navy | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Navy | W 32–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Air ForceHome | Navy -11.5 | Navy -13.5 | 2.0 pts toward Navy | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Navy | W 34–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. RiceHome | Navy -22 | Navy -14 | 8.0 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 6.0 pts toward opponents | W 21–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at TulsaAway | Navy -10 | Navy -13.5 | 3.4 pts toward Navy | None identified | 3.4 pts toward Navy | W 42–23 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. UABHome | Navy -29 | Navy -21.5 | 7.3 pts toward opponents | 3.8 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 38–24 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. VMIHome | Navy -45 | Navy -42.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward Navy | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 52–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.