Offense#63
+0.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.19 #54 FBSSuccess rate42.2% #71 FBS
American Athletic · #76 of 138
Army
Implied Strength-1.7vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility84%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule89thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat TempleWeek 4 · OV Line ARMY -5.5 · 66% win chance →Toughest remaining test#70 NavyWeek 15 · 47% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 2.9 rating points.
Defense#83
-2.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.18 #84 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.8% #118 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Army's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (7.3 expected wins), with a 3% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 8 winsMedian 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 84.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
2.7%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached2.7% total
Auto-bid2.3%
At-large0.3%
Outside field97.3%
Conference title7.6%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Army. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production80.2%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class137thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production87thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.7Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Army through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS40%2–3 against consensus
Average line gap3.4 pts60% inside 3 points · 3 of 5
Factor coverage40%2 of 5 games
Factor signals50% aligned1 of 2 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample5 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Army games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 0.5 pts toward Army | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 5 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Air ForceNeutral | Army +14.5 | Army +7 | 7.4 pts toward Army | None identified | 7.4 pts toward Army | L 7–13 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. ColgateHome | Army -32 | Army -31 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward Army | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 42–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W6 | at Wake ForestAway | Army +14 | Army +16 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 10–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. VillanovaHome | Army -10 | Army -14 | 4.1 pts toward Army | None identified | 4.1 pts toward Army | W 49–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | at Coastal CarolinaAway | Army -0.5 | Army +1.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 28–38 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 5 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.