Offense#121
-7.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.04 #126 FBSSuccess rate35.6% #128 FBS
American Athletic · #120 of 138
Rice
Implied Strength-14.8vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility9%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule76thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Western MichiganWeek 3 · OV Line RICE +5.5 · 33% win chance →Toughest remaining test#64 UTSAWeek 5 · 15% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#119
-7.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.24 #120 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.4% #66 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Rice's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 3–9 (3.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 3 winsCentral 80% 2–5 winsBowl eligible 9.4%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Rice. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production39.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class84thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production122ndof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.6Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Rice through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS42%5–7 against consensus
Average line gap2.9 pts67% inside 3 points · 8 of 12
Factor coverage50%6 of 12 games
Factor signals86% aligned6 of 7 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Rice games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 2.8 pts toward Rice | 100%3 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.4 pts toward Rice | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.6 pts toward Rice | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at South FloridaAway | Rice +30.5 | Rice +28.5 | 1.8 pts toward Rice | 4.1 pts toward Rice | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 3–52 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. North TexasHome | Rice +19 | Rice +18.5 | 0.6 pts toward Rice | 1.0 pts toward Rice | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 24–56 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. UABHome | Rice -3.5 | Rice -1 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 24–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. MemphisHome | Rice +17 | Rice +14 | 3.1 pts toward Rice | None identified | 3.1 pts toward Rice | L 14–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. UConnHome | Rice +13 | Rice +10 | 2.8 pts toward Rice | 1.0 pts toward Rice | 1.8 pts toward Rice | W 37–34 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at UTSAAway | Rice +15 | Rice +9.5 | 5.7 pts toward Rice | None identified | 5.7 pts toward Rice | L 13–61 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Florida AtlanticHome | Rice -4 | Rice -4.5 | 0.3 pts toward Rice | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Rice | L 21–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at NavyAway | Rice +22 | Rice +14 | 8.0 pts toward Rice | 2.0 pts toward Rice | 6.0 pts toward Rice | L 13–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at CharlotteAway | Rice -2.5 | Rice -1.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 28–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Prairie View A&MHome | Rice -29 | Rice -29.5 | 0.3 pts toward Rice | 1.5 pts toward Rice | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 38–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. HoustonHome | Rice +16 | Rice +13.5 | 2.4 pts toward Rice | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Rice | L 9–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at LouisianaAway | Rice +16 | Rice +9.5 | 6.4 pts toward Rice | 0.6 pts toward Rice | 5.8 pts toward Rice | W 14–12 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.