Rice at Fresno State

Week 4 · Sep 26Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno, CA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineFresno State -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusFresno State -12.510-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 9:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward RiceExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?Rice 24 · Fresno State 38
Pregame OV Line
Fresno State -16.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Fresno State -12.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Fresno State by 14

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Rice 10.0%Fresno State 90.0%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

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Compare Teams

RiceVSFresno State

Model View

Overall Rating-15.0 · #118+2.1 · #62
Offense Rating-7.9-0.9
Defense Rating-7.1+3.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.040.10
Offense Success Rate35.6%39.7%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.240.08
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.4%38.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.66.8
Playoff Odds<0.01%0.2%
Strength of Schedule Rank76th80th