Offense#5
+13.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.33 #6 FBSSuccess rate46.3% #24 FBS
FBS Independents · #5 of 138
Notre Dame
Implied Strength+26.4vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds93%make the 12-team field
Conference TitleN/Anot applicable to independents
Strength of Schedule66thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Michigan StateWeek 3 · OV Line ND -28 · 99% win chance →Toughest remaining test#7 MiamiWeek 10 · 68% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#8
+12.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.02 #9 FBSSuccess rate allowed36.3% #14 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Notre Dame's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 11–1 (11.1 expected wins), and the playoff is more likely than not at 93%. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 11 winsCentral 80% 10–12 winsBowl eligible >99.9%Undefeated 38.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
93.2%Make the 12-team field
More likely than not across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached93.2% total
Top-12 protection93.2%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field6.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Notre Dame ranks 17th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production51.2%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class128thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production17thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total10.7Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Notre Dame through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS66%25–13–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.4 pts64% inside 3 points · 25 of 39
Factor coverage59%23 of 39 games
Factor signals64% aligned16 of 25 individual observations · 2 neutral
Historical sample39 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Notre Dame games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 13 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 77%10 of 13 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 10 | 0.2 pts toward Notre Dame | 60%6 of 10 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 2 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 39 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at StanfordAway | Notre Dame -33.5 | Notre Dame -32.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.7 pts toward opponents | 3.7 pts toward Notre Dame | W 49–20 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | at PittsburghAway | Notre Dame -13 | Notre Dame -12.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward Notre Dame | W 37–15 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. NavyHome | Notre Dame -30.5 | Notre Dame -30.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward opponents | 4.0 pts toward Notre Dame | W 49–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W10 | at Boston CollegeAway | Notre Dame -27 | Notre Dame -31 | 4.0 pts toward Notre Dame | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 5.7 pts toward Notre Dame | W 25–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. USCHome | Notre Dame -9.5 | Notre Dame -10.5 | 0.9 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Notre Dame | W 34–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. NC StateHome | Notre Dame -21 | Notre Dame -23.5 | 2.4 pts toward Notre Dame | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 5.0 pts toward Notre Dame | W 36–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Boise StateHome | Notre Dame -19.5 | Notre Dame -21.5 | 1.8 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Notre Dame | W 28–7 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at ArkansasAway | Notre Dame -3 | Notre Dame -5.5 | 2.6 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Notre Dame | W 56–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. PurdueHome | Notre Dame -28 | Notre Dame -24.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward Notre Dame | W 56–30 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Notre Dame -5 | Notre Dame -6.5 | 1.7 pts toward Notre Dame | 0.9 pts toward Notre Dame | 0.8 pts toward Notre Dame | L 40–41 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W1 | at MiamiAway | Notre Dame -1.5 | Notre Dame -2.5 | 0.9 pts toward Notre Dame | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Notre Dame | L 24–27 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2024 · W14 | at USCAway | Notre Dame -8.5 | Notre Dame -7 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 49–35 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. VirginiaHome | Notre Dame -25.5 | Notre Dame -21.5 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 35–14 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. Florida StateHome | Notre Dame -24 | Notre Dame -25.5 | 1.6 pts toward Notre Dame | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 3.0 pts toward Notre Dame | W 52–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. Georgia TechNeutral | Notre Dame -11 | Notre Dame -14 | 3.1 pts toward Notre Dame | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward Notre Dame | W 31–13 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. StanfordHome | Notre Dame -25.5 | Notre Dame -22.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 49–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. LouisvilleHome | Notre Dame +0.5 | Notre Dame -6.5 | 7.2 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 7.2 pts toward Notre Dame | W 31–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | at PurdueAway | Notre Dame +2 | Notre Dame -7.5 | 9.4 pts toward Notre Dame | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 10.5 pts toward Notre Dame | W 66–7 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W1 | at Texas A&MAway | Notre Dame 0 | Notre Dame +2.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 23–13 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2023 · W13 | at StanfordAway | Notre Dame -29.5 | Notre Dame -26 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 3.0 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 56–23 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Notre Dame -26 | Notre Dame -23.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 45–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W10 | at ClemsonAway | Notre Dame -5.5 | Notre Dame -3 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 23–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. PittsburghHome | Notre Dame -20 | Notre Dame -21 | 1.1 pts toward Notre Dame | 1.1 pts toward Notre Dame | No net direction | W 58–7 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. USCHome | Notre Dame +1 | Notre Dame -3 | 3.9 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Notre Dame | W 48–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at LouisvilleAway | Notre Dame -9.5 | Notre Dame -6 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 20–33 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at DukeAway | Notre Dame -6.5 | Notre Dame -5.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 21–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Notre Dame +8 | Notre Dame +3 | 4.8 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 4.8 pts toward Notre Dame | L 14–17 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | at NC StateAway | Notre Dame -22 | Notre Dame -7 | 14.8 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 12.6 pts toward opponents | W 45–24 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Tennessee StateHome | Notre Dame -49.5 | Notre Dame -48.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward Notre Dame | W 56–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at USCAway | Notre Dame +5.5 | Notre Dame +4.5 | 1.3 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Notre Dame | L 27–38 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Boston CollegeHome | Notre Dame -22 | Notre Dame -20 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward Notre Dame | W 44–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. ClemsonHome | Notre Dame +4.5 | Notre Dame +3.5 | 1.1 pts toward Notre Dame | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward Notre Dame | W 35–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W9 | at SyracuseAway | Notre Dame +0.5 | Notre Dame -0.5 | 1.1 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Notre Dame | W 41–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. StanfordHome | Notre Dame -17.5 | Notre Dame -16.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 14–16 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. BYUNeutral | Notre Dame -1 | Notre Dame -3.5 | 2.3 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Notre Dame | W 28–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at North CarolinaAway | Notre Dame -6.5 | Notre Dame +2.5 | 9.0 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 8.0 pts toward opponents | W 45–32 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Notre Dame -18 | Notre Dame -13.5 | 4.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.7 pts toward opponents | W 24–17 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. MarshallHome | Notre Dame -2.5 | Notre Dame -20.5 | 17.9 pts toward Notre Dame | None identified | 17.9 pts toward Notre Dame | L 21–26 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | at Ohio StateAway | Notre Dame +17.5 | Notre Dame +17 | 0.7 pts toward Notre Dame | No net direction | 0.7 pts toward Notre Dame | L 10–21 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 39 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.