Offense#59
+1.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.02 #130 FBSSuccess rate36.6% #122 FBS
Big Ten · #45 of 138
Wisconsin
Implied Strength+6.2vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility66%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule44thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Eastern MichiganWeek 3 · OV Line WIS -23.5 · 97% win chance →Toughest remaining test#13 USCWeek 8 · 22% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 3.6 rating points.
Defense#35
+4.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.17 #82 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.8% #115 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Wisconsin's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (6.2 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 66.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.9%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.9% total
Auto-bid0.2%
At-large0.7%
Outside field99.1%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Wisconsin. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production31.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class11thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production75thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.5Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Wisconsin through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS42%18–25–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts55% inside 3 points · 24 of 44
Factor coverage30%13 of 44 games
Factor signals62% aligned8 of 13 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Wisconsin games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 8 | 1.0 pts toward Wisconsin | 63%5 of 8 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | 0.1 pts toward Wisconsin | 60%3 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at MinnesotaAway | Wisconsin +3.5 | Wisconsin -2.5 | 6.0 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 6.0 pts toward Wisconsin | L 7–17 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. IllinoisHome | Wisconsin +8 | Wisconsin +8.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 27–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at IndianaAway | Wisconsin +31.5 | Wisconsin +28 | 3.5 pts toward Wisconsin | 4.3 pts toward Wisconsin | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 7–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. WashingtonHome | Wisconsin +10.5 | Wisconsin +10.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 13–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at OregonAway | Wisconsin +29 | Wisconsin +31.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward Wisconsin | 6.2 pts toward opponents | L 7–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Wisconsin +23 | Wisconsin +24.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Wisconsin | 4.5 pts toward opponents | L 0–34 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. IowaHome | Wisconsin +3.5 | Wisconsin +5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | No net direction | L 0–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | at MichiganAway | Wisconsin +17.5 | Wisconsin +17.5 | 0.1 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Wisconsin | L 10–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. MarylandHome | Wisconsin -8 | Wisconsin -10.5 | 2.4 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Wisconsin | L 10–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at AlabamaAway | Wisconsin +27.5 | Wisconsin +18.5 | 8.8 pts toward Wisconsin | 3.5 pts toward Wisconsin | 5.3 pts toward Wisconsin | L 14–38 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Middle TennesseeHome | Wisconsin -43.5 | Wisconsin -28.5 | 14.8 pts toward opponents | 6.9 pts toward opponents | 7.9 pts toward opponents | W 42–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Miami (OH)Home | Wisconsin -20 | Wisconsin -18 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 17–0 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Wisconsin -2 | Wisconsin +1.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.4 pts toward opponents | L 7–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at NebraskaAway | Wisconsin +3.5 | Wisconsin +1.5 | 1.8 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Wisconsin | L 25–44 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. OregonHome | Wisconsin +15 | Wisconsin +13.5 | 1.3 pts toward Wisconsin | 1.1 pts toward Wisconsin | 0.2 pts toward Wisconsin | L 13–16 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | at IowaAway | Wisconsin +7 | Wisconsin +2.5 | 4.7 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 4.7 pts toward Wisconsin | L 10–42 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. Penn StateHome | Wisconsin +9.5 | Wisconsin +6.5 | 3.1 pts toward Wisconsin | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 4.8 pts toward Wisconsin | L 13–28 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. NorthwesternNeutral | Wisconsin -8 | Wisconsin -9.5 | 1.5 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Wisconsin | W 23–3 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at RutgersAway | Wisconsin +4 | Wisconsin +1.5 | 2.5 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Wisconsin | W 42–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. PurdueHome | Wisconsin -10.5 | Wisconsin -12 | 1.3 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Wisconsin | W 52–6 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at USCAway | Wisconsin +18 | Wisconsin +13.5 | 4.7 pts toward Wisconsin | 1.8 pts toward Wisconsin | 3.0 pts toward Wisconsin | L 21–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. AlabamaHome | Wisconsin +28 | Wisconsin +15.5 | 12.6 pts toward Wisconsin | 2.8 pts toward Wisconsin | 9.8 pts toward Wisconsin | L 10–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. South DakotaHome | Wisconsin -20.5 | Wisconsin -17.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 27–13 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | at MinnesotaAway | Wisconsin -3.5 | Wisconsin -2.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 28–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. NebraskaHome | Wisconsin -7.5 | Wisconsin -7 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 24–17 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Wisconsin -16.5 | Wisconsin -12 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.5 pts toward opponents | L 10–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at IndianaAway | Wisconsin -13 | Wisconsin -9.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 14–20 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Wisconsin +14.5 | Wisconsin +14.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 10–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | at IllinoisAway | Wisconsin -10.5 | Wisconsin -3 | 7.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.5 pts toward opponents | W 25–21 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. IowaHome | Wisconsin -10 | Wisconsin -8.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 6–15 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. RutgersHome | Wisconsin -13.5 | Wisconsin -13 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Wisconsin | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 24–13 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W4 | at PurdueAway | Wisconsin -9.5 | Wisconsin -6 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | W 38–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | at Washington StateAway | Wisconsin -1 | Wisconsin -5.5 | 4.6 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 4.6 pts toward Wisconsin | L 22–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Wisconsin -1 | Wisconsin -3 | 2.0 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Wisconsin | L 16–23 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at NebraskaAway | Wisconsin -12.5 | Wisconsin -10 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | W 15–14 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at IowaAway | Wisconsin -2 | Wisconsin 0 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 10–24 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. MarylandHome | Wisconsin -7 | Wisconsin -5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | W 23–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. PurdueHome | Wisconsin -5.5 | Wisconsin -1.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 35–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at Michigan StateAway | Wisconsin -5.5 | Wisconsin -7 | 1.3 pts toward Wisconsin | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Wisconsin | L 28–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at NorthwesternAway | Wisconsin -18.5 | Wisconsin -10 | 8.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.7 pts toward opponents | W 42–7 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. IllinoisHome | Wisconsin -14.5 | Wisconsin -6.5 | 8.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.0 pts toward opponents | L 10–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at Ohio StateAway | Wisconsin +13 | Wisconsin +19 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.0 pts toward opponents | L 21–52 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Washington StateHome | Wisconsin -31 | Wisconsin -17.5 | 13.6 pts toward opponents | 3.8 pts toward opponents | 9.9 pts toward opponents | L 14–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Illinois StateHome | Wisconsin -38 | Wisconsin -36.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Wisconsin | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 38–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.