Offense#67
+0.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.10 #107 FBSSuccess rate42.0% #73 FBS
Big Ten · #74 of 138
Purdue
Implied Strength-1.6vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility3%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule7thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat UCLAWeek 3 · OV Line PUR +15 · 12% win chance →Toughest remaining test#2 IndianaWeek 13 · 1% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 2.2 rating points.
Defense#79
-1.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.27 #132 FBSSuccess rate allowed47.8% #129 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Purdue's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 3–9 (2.8 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 2 winsMedian 3 winsCentral 80% 1–4 winsBowl eligible 2.6%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Purdue. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production47.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class26thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production86thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.1Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Purdue through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS36%17–30 against consensus
Average line gap3.2 pts55% inside 3 points · 26 of 47
Factor coverage45%21 of 47 games
Factor signals64% aligned14 of 22 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample47 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Purdue games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 14 | 2.8 pts toward Purdue | 57%8 of 14 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.6 pts toward Purdue | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.8 pts toward Purdue | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 47 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. IndianaHome | Purdue +28 | Purdue +28.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward Purdue | 4.2 pts toward opponents | L 3–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | at WashingtonAway | Purdue +18.5 | Purdue +14.5 | 3.9 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Purdue | L 13–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Purdue +28 | Purdue +29.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 3.7 pts toward Purdue | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 10–34 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W10 | at MichiganAway | Purdue +21.5 | Purdue +21 | 0.3 pts toward Purdue | 2.7 pts toward Purdue | 2.4 pts toward opponents | L 16–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. RutgersHome | Purdue +1.5 | Purdue -2.5 | 3.9 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Purdue | L 24–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at NorthwesternAway | Purdue +7 | Purdue +3.5 | 3.4 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 3.4 pts toward Purdue | L 0–19 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at MinnesotaAway | Purdue +9.5 | Purdue +7.5 | 1.8 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Purdue | L 20–27 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. IllinoisHome | Purdue +12.5 | Purdue +7 | 5.6 pts toward Purdue | 1.1 pts toward Purdue | 4.5 pts toward Purdue | L 27–43 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at Notre DameAway | Purdue +28 | Purdue +24.5 | 3.6 pts toward Purdue | 3.6 pts toward Purdue | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 30–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. USCHome | Purdue +23 | Purdue +20.5 | 2.6 pts toward Purdue | 2.9 pts toward Purdue | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 17–33 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Southern IllinoisHome | Purdue -27 | Purdue -21 | 5.9 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward Purdue | 7.6 pts toward opponents | W 34–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Ball StateHome | Purdue -17.5 | Purdue -16.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 31–0 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at IndianaAway | Purdue +31 | Purdue +28.5 | 2.4 pts toward Purdue | 3.2 pts toward Purdue | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 0–66 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W13 | at Michigan StateAway | Purdue +14 | Purdue +14 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 17–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. Penn StateHome | Purdue +27.5 | Purdue +30 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward Purdue | 5.4 pts toward opponents | L 10–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W11 | at Ohio StateAway | Purdue +39 | Purdue +37.5 | 1.3 pts toward Purdue | 4.4 pts toward Purdue | 3.1 pts toward opponents | L 0–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Purdue +6 | Purdue -3 | 9.0 pts toward Purdue | 1.1 pts toward Purdue | 7.9 pts toward Purdue | L 20–26 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. OregonHome | Purdue +27.5 | Purdue +29.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward Purdue | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 0–35 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W7 | at IllinoisAway | Purdue +14.5 | Purdue +22.5 | 8.0 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 7.0 pts toward opponents | L 49–50 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | at WisconsinAway | Purdue +10.5 | Purdue +12 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 6–52 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. NebraskaHome | Purdue +10 | Purdue +10 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 10–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at Oregon StateAway | Purdue +5.5 | Purdue +1.5 | 3.8 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 3.8 pts toward Purdue | L 21–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. Notre DameHome | Purdue -2 | Purdue +7.5 | 9.4 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Purdue | 10.5 pts toward opponents | L 7–66 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Indiana StateHome | Purdue -34 | Purdue -35.5 | 1.6 pts toward Purdue | 1.8 pts toward Purdue | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 49–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. IndianaHome | Purdue -5 | Purdue -6.5 | 1.7 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Purdue | W 35–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at NorthwesternAway | Purdue -2 | Purdue +2.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 15–23 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Purdue +1.5 | Purdue +1.5 | 0.2 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Purdue | W 49–30 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at MichiganAway | Purdue +31 | Purdue +32.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward Purdue | 3.5 pts toward opponents | L 13–41 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W9 | at NebraskaAway | Purdue +0.5 | Purdue -1 | 1.7 pts toward Purdue | 1.8 pts toward Purdue | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 14–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Purdue +22.5 | Purdue +17.5 | 5.2 pts toward Purdue | 2.3 pts toward Purdue | 2.9 pts toward Purdue | L 7–41 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W6 | at IowaAway | Purdue +9 | Purdue +2.5 | 6.5 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 6.5 pts toward Purdue | L 14–20 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. IllinoisHome | Purdue -0.5 | Purdue -1 | 0.7 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Purdue | W 44–19 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. WisconsinHome | Purdue +9.5 | Purdue +6 | 3.6 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Purdue | L 17–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. SyracuseHome | Purdue +19.5 | Purdue +1 | 18.3 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 18.3 pts toward Purdue | L 20–35 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | at Virginia TechAway | Purdue +8.5 | Purdue +1 | 7.3 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 7.3 pts toward Purdue | W 24–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W14 | vs. MichiganNeutral | Purdue +19 | Purdue +16 | 3.2 pts toward Purdue | 1.8 pts toward Purdue | 1.4 pts toward Purdue | L 22–43 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W13 | at IndianaAway | Purdue -10.5 | Purdue -10 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 30–16 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Purdue -14.5 | Purdue -17.5 | 2.8 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Purdue | W 17–9 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at IllinoisAway | Purdue +5 | Purdue +6 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 31–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. IowaHome | Purdue -4.5 | Purdue -3.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Purdue | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 3–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | at WisconsinAway | Purdue +5.5 | Purdue +1.5 | 3.8 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 3.8 pts toward Purdue | L 24–35 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. NebraskaHome | Purdue -12.5 | Purdue -14 | 1.4 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Purdue | W 43–37 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at MarylandAway | Purdue +3 | Purdue +3 | 0.2 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Purdue | W 31–29 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at MinnesotaAway | Purdue +12 | Purdue +9 | 3.1 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 3.1 pts toward Purdue | W 20–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | at SyracuseAway | Purdue -4 | Purdue +1.5 | 5.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.4 pts toward opponents | L 29–32 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Indiana StateHome | Purdue -34 | Purdue -37 | 3.2 pts toward Purdue | 0.3 pts toward Purdue | 2.9 pts toward Purdue | W 56–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Penn StateHome | Purdue +4.5 | Purdue +3.5 | 0.9 pts toward Purdue | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Purdue | L 31–35 | L | None identified |
Sample: 47 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.