Offense#75
-0.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.16 #77 FBSSuccess rate38.0% #116 FBS
ACC · #56 of 138
Wake Forest
Implied Strength+3.4vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility77%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule62ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. MiamiWeek 3 · OV Line WAKE +17 · 9% win chance →Toughest remaining test#7 MiamiWeek 3 · 9% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 4.5 rating points.
Defense#41
+3.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.04 #14 FBSSuccess rate allowed35.5% #10 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Wake Forest's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.7 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 77.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
1.5%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached1.5% total
Auto-bid0.3%
At-large1.2%
Outside field98.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
14% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Wake Forest in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production14.2%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class39thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production58thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.7Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered
Akron at Wake Forest · Winston-Salem, NC · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
12:00 AM · Oct 31
Virginia at Wake Forest · Winston-Salem, NC · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
12:00 AM · Nov 7
Merrimack at Wake Forest · Winston-Salem, NC · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Wake Forest through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS50%21–21–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts61% inside 3 points · 27 of 44
Factor coverage27%12 of 44 games
Factor signals76% aligned13 of 17 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Wake Forest games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 8 | 2.0 pts toward Wake Forest | 100%8 of 8 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | No net direction | 43%3 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 2 | 0.8 pts toward Wake Forest | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at DukeAway | Wake Forest +8.5 | Wake Forest +2.5 | 5.9 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 5.9 pts toward Wake Forest | L 32–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. DelawareHome | Wake Forest -19 | Wake Forest -17.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | W 52–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. North CarolinaHome | Wake Forest -7.5 | Wake Forest -3.5 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.1 pts toward opponents | W 28–12 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at VirginiaAway | Wake Forest +11 | Wake Forest +7 | 3.9 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Wake Forest | W 16–9 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at Florida StateAway | Wake Forest +15.5 | Wake Forest +12.5 | 3.1 pts toward Wake Forest | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward Wake Forest | L 7–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. SMUHome | Wake Forest +11 | Wake Forest +5.5 | 5.5 pts toward Wake Forest | 1.1 pts toward Wake Forest | 4.4 pts toward Wake Forest | W 13–12 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at Oregon StateAway | Wake Forest -2 | Wake Forest -1.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 39–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at Virginia TechAway | Wake Forest +9 | Wake Forest +4.5 | 4.4 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 4.4 pts toward Wake Forest | W 30–23 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Wake Forest +14.5 | Wake Forest +13 | 1.3 pts toward Wake Forest | 1.1 pts toward Wake Forest | 0.1 pts toward Wake Forest | L 29–30 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. NC StateHome | Wake Forest +5.5 | Wake Forest +7.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 24–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Western CarolinaHome | Wake Forest -15.5 | Wake Forest -17.5 | 2.0 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Wake Forest | W 42–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Kennesaw StateHome | Wake Forest -17.5 | Wake Forest -18.5 | 0.9 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Wake Forest | W 10–9 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. DukeHome | Wake Forest +4 | Wake Forest +3.5 | 0.3 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Wake Forest | L 17–23 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at MiamiAway | Wake Forest +27.5 | Wake Forest +23.5 | 3.8 pts toward Wake Forest | 1.6 pts toward Wake Forest | 2.2 pts toward Wake Forest | L 14–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W12 | at North CarolinaAway | Wake Forest +12.5 | Wake Forest +10.5 | 2.2 pts toward Wake Forest | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 3.2 pts toward Wake Forest | L 24–31 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Wake Forest +9 | Wake Forest +7 | 2.2 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Wake Forest | L 36–46 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at StanfordAway | Wake Forest +1 | Wake Forest -3 | 4.2 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 4.2 pts toward Wake Forest | W 27–24 | P | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. ClemsonHome | Wake Forest +20 | Wake Forest +21 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 14–49 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | at NC StateAway | Wake Forest +12 | Wake Forest +4 | 8.2 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 8.2 pts toward Wake Forest | W 34–30 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. Ole MissHome | Wake Forest +42 | Wake Forest +20.5 | 21.7 pts toward Wake Forest | 4.9 pts toward Wake Forest | 16.8 pts toward Wake Forest | L 6–40 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. VirginiaHome | Wake Forest -3 | Wake Forest +1 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 30–31 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | at SyracuseAway | Wake Forest +4 | Wake Forest +2 | 2.1 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Wake Forest | L 31–35 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Notre DameAway | Wake Forest +26 | Wake Forest +23.5 | 2.3 pts toward Wake Forest | 1.5 pts toward Wake Forest | 0.8 pts toward Wake Forest | L 7–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. NC StateHome | Wake Forest +2.5 | Wake Forest +2 | 0.7 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Wake Forest | L 6–26 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at DukeAway | Wake Forest +13.5 | Wake Forest +6.5 | 6.8 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 6.8 pts toward Wake Forest | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. Florida StateHome | Wake Forest +22.5 | Wake Forest +21 | 1.3 pts toward Wake Forest | 2.3 pts toward Wake Forest | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 16–41 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. PittsburghHome | Wake Forest +1 | Wake Forest +3 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 21–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at Virginia TechAway | Wake Forest +1.5 | Wake Forest +1.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 13–30 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at ClemsonAway | Wake Forest +22.5 | Wake Forest +21 | 1.4 pts toward Wake Forest | 4.0 pts toward Wake Forest | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 12–17 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Wake Forest -3.5 | Wake Forest -3.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 16–30 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. VanderbiltHome | Wake Forest -9 | Wake Forest -9.5 | 0.3 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Wake Forest | W 36–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. ElonHome | Wake Forest -21 | Wake Forest -32.5 | 11.3 pts toward Wake Forest | 3.3 pts toward Wake Forest | 8.0 pts toward Wake Forest | W 37–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2022 · W13 | at DukeAway | Wake Forest -7.5 | Wake Forest -3 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.5 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. SyracuseHome | Wake Forest -8 | Wake Forest -9.5 | 1.7 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Wake Forest | W 45–35 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. North CarolinaHome | Wake Forest -5.5 | Wake Forest -4.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 34–36 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at NC StateAway | Wake Forest -0.5 | Wake Forest -3 | 2.6 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Wake Forest | L 21–30 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at LouisvilleAway | Wake Forest -2.5 | Wake Forest -3 | 0.3 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Wake Forest | L 21–48 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. Boston CollegeHome | Wake Forest -18.5 | Wake Forest -20 | 1.4 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Wake Forest | W 43–15 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. ArmyHome | Wake Forest -14 | Wake Forest -16 | 2.2 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Wake Forest | W 45–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at Florida StateAway | Wake Forest +6.5 | Wake Forest +6 | 0.3 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Wake Forest | W 31–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. ClemsonHome | Wake Forest +2.5 | Wake Forest +7.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.1 pts toward opponents | L 45–51 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. LibertyHome | Wake Forest -21 | Wake Forest -17.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 37–36 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | at VanderbiltAway | Wake Forest -1.5 | Wake Forest -13.5 | 11.9 pts toward Wake Forest | None identified | 11.9 pts toward Wake Forest | W 45–25 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. VMIHome | Wake Forest -33.5 | Wake Forest -33.5 | 0.2 pts toward Wake Forest | 2.2 pts toward Wake Forest | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 44–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.