Offense#128
-9.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.07 #117 FBSSuccess rate39.5% #107 FBS
Mid-American · #131 of 138
Akron
Implied Strength-19.0vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility25%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule122ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat MinnesotaWeek 3 · OV Line AKR +27.5 · 2% win chance →Toughest remaining test#46 MinnesotaWeek 3 · 2% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#125
-9.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.15 #60 FBSSuccess rate allowed40.3% #53 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Akron's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–8 (4.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 4 winsCentral 80% 2–7 winsBowl eligible 24.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title1.3%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Akron. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production91.8%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class107thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production131stof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.5Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered
Akron at Wake Forest · Winston-Salem, NC · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Akron through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS45%5–6 against consensus
Average line gap3.4 pts55% inside 3 points · 6 of 11
Factor coverage27%3 of 11 games
Factor signals67% aligned2 of 3 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Akron games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 4.1 pts toward Akron | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W13 | at Bowling GreenAway | Akron +8 | Akron +2.5 | 5.5 pts toward Akron | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 6.0 pts toward Akron | W 19–16 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Kent StateHome | Akron -9.5 | Akron -7.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 35–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. MassachusettsHome | Akron -11 | Akron -12.5 | 1.4 pts toward Akron | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Akron | W 44–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at Ball StateAway | Akron +5 | Akron -2 | 7.2 pts toward Akron | None identified | 7.2 pts toward Akron | L 28–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Miami (OH)Home | Akron +10 | Akron +11.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 7–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Central MichiganHome | Akron +1.5 | Akron +7 | 5.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.5 pts toward opponents | W 28–22 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at ToledoAway | Akron +25.5 | Akron +21.5 | 4.1 pts toward Akron | 3.3 pts toward Akron | 0.8 pts toward Akron | L 3–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. DuquesneHome | Akron -4 | Akron -10.5 | 6.6 pts toward Akron | None identified | 6.6 pts toward Akron | W 51–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at UABAway | Akron +13 | Akron +12.5 | 0.3 pts toward Akron | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Akron | L 28–31 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at NebraskaAway | Akron +35 | Akron +34 | 1.0 pts toward Akron | 5.0 pts toward Akron | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 0–68 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. WyomingHome | Akron +7 | Akron +5 | 2.0 pts toward Akron | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Akron | L 0–10 | L | None identified |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.