Akron at Wake Forest

Week 1 · Sep 3Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem, NC
Akron1–1-19.0 vs. avg · #131
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Wake Forest2–0+3.4 vs. avg · #56

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineWake Forest -23Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusWake Forest -23.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineWake Forest -23Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward AkronOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineWake Forest -21.5Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward Wake ForestExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineWake Forest -23Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward AkronOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Wake Forest -21.5Opening Market ConsensusWake Forest -22.5Unexplained at open~1 pt toward Wake ForestSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Wake Forest -21.5Current Market ConsensusWake Forest -23.5Unexplained gap~2 pts toward Wake ForestExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward AkronAt open ~1.5 pts toward AkronIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Wake Forest

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward AkronAt open ~1.5 pts toward AkronIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Wake Forest
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Wake Forest's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 35%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.3 points toward Akron (average-estimate range 0.8–2.3), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Wake Forest is favored by 23.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Wake Forest faces materially stronger Purdue in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Trap game Inconclusive

Wake Forest is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Purdue.

Studied in 186 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Akron is a 23.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Akron 16 · Wake Forest 38
Pregame OV Line
Wake Forest -23
Final recorded market
Wake Forest -23.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Wake Forest -21.5
Actual margin
Wake Forest by 22

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Akron 4.7%Wake Forest 95.3%

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Compare Teams

AkronVSWake Forest

Model View

Overall Rating-19.0 · #131+3.4 · #56
Offense Rating-9.9-0.6
Defense Rating-9.1+3.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.070.16
Offense Success Rate39.5%38.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.150.04
Defense Success Rate Allowed40.3%35.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.55.7
Playoff Odds<0.01%1.5%
Strength of Schedule Rank122nd62nd