Offense#138
-15.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play-0.03 #136 FBSSuccess rate33.6% #134 FBS
Mid-American · #138 of 138
Massachusetts
Implied Strength-25.0vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility41%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule137thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. StonehillWeek 3 · OV Line MASS -18.5 · 82% win chance →Toughest remaining test#94 ToledoWeek 11 · 6% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 5.7 rating points.
Defense#128
-9.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.26 #128 FBSSuccess rate allowed48.0% #131 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Massachusetts's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.3 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 40.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
<0.01% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Massachusetts in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production-56.7%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class64thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production138thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.2Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Massachusetts through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS18%2–9 against consensus
Average line gap1.9 pts82% inside 3 points · 9 of 11
Factor coverage36%4 of 11 games
Factor signals80% aligned4 of 5 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Massachusetts games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 6.1 pts toward Massachusetts | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.8 pts toward Massachusetts | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Bowling GreenHome | Massachusetts +13 | Massachusetts +14 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 14–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at OhioAway | Massachusetts +28.5 | Massachusetts +33.5 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | 3.8 pts toward Massachusetts | 8.5 pts toward opponents | L 14–42 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Northern IllinoisHome | Massachusetts +10.5 | Massachusetts +9.5 | 0.9 pts toward Massachusetts | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Massachusetts | L 3–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at AkronAway | Massachusetts +11 | Massachusetts +12.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 10–44 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Central MichiganAway | Massachusetts +18.5 | Massachusetts +16.5 | 1.9 pts toward Massachusetts | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Massachusetts | L 13–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Kent StateAway | Massachusetts +2.5 | Massachusetts +1.5 | 1.0 pts toward Massachusetts | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Massachusetts | L 6–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Western MichiganHome | Massachusetts +11 | Massachusetts +12.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 3–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at MissouriAway | Massachusetts +47 | Massachusetts +44.5 | 2.4 pts toward Massachusetts | 10.1 pts toward Massachusetts | 7.7 pts toward opponents | L 6–42 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at IowaAway | Massachusetts +40.5 | Massachusetts +35.5 | 5.2 pts toward Massachusetts | 6.1 pts toward Massachusetts | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–47 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. BryantHome | Massachusetts -15.5 | Massachusetts -15.5 | 0.1 pts toward Massachusetts | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Massachusetts | L 26–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. TempleHome | Massachusetts +1.5 | Massachusetts +2.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 10–42 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.