Offense#57
+1.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.21 #36 FBSSuccess rate46.2% #26 FBS
Big Ten · #79 of 138
Rutgers
Implied Strength-3.0vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility2%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule41stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. USCWeek 3 · OV Line RUTG +19 · 7% win chance →Toughest remaining test#2 IndianaWeek 5 · 1% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 6.4 rating points.
Defense#99
-4.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.31 #134 FBSSuccess rate allowed47.3% #128 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Rutgers's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 3–9 (2.6 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 2 winsCentral 80% 1–4 winsBowl eligible 1.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Rutgers. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production44.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class90thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production67thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.9Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Rutgers through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS50%21–21–3 against consensus
Average line gap2.5 pts67% inside 3 points · 30 of 45
Factor coverage44%20 of 45 games
Factor signals75% aligned15 of 20 individual observations · 2 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Rutgers games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 10 | 0.9 pts toward Rutgers | 80%8 of 10 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 9 | 0.6 pts toward Rutgers | 67%6 of 9 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 2 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Penn StateHome | Rutgers +12 | Rutgers +14 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | L 36–40 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Ohio StateAway | Rutgers +32 | Rutgers +28.5 | 3.7 pts toward Rutgers | 6.3 pts toward Rutgers | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 9–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. MarylandHome | Rutgers -5.5 | Rutgers -1.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 35–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at IllinoisAway | Rutgers +13 | Rutgers +13 | 0.1 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Rutgers | L 13–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at PurdueAway | Rutgers -1.5 | Rutgers +2.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. OregonHome | Rutgers +17 | Rutgers +17.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 10–56 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at WashingtonAway | Rutgers +11 | Rutgers +9.5 | 1.4 pts toward Rutgers | 1.8 pts toward Rutgers | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 19–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | at MinnesotaAway | Rutgers +5.5 | Rutgers +3.5 | 1.8 pts toward Rutgers | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward Rutgers | L 28–31 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. IowaHome | Rutgers -2 | Rutgers +2.5 | 4.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.6 pts toward opponents | L 28–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Norfolk StateHome | Rutgers -47.5 | Rutgers -44.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 60–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Miami (OH)Home | Rutgers -21.5 | Rutgers -15.5 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward opponents | W 45–17 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. OhioHome | Rutgers -12.5 | Rutgers -15.5 | 3.1 pts toward Rutgers | No net direction | 3.1 pts toward Rutgers | W 34–31 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2024 · W14 | at Michigan StateAway | Rutgers +1.5 | Rutgers +1.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 41–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. IllinoisHome | Rutgers -1.5 | Rutgers -2.5 | 1.0 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Rutgers | L 31–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at MarylandAway | Rutgers +5 | Rutgers +4.5 | 0.3 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Rutgers | W 31–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Rutgers +4 | Rutgers +6.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Rutgers | 3.3 pts toward opponents | W 26–19 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | at USCAway | Rutgers +15.5 | Rutgers +14 | 2.0 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Rutgers | L 20–42 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. UCLAHome | Rutgers -8.5 | Rutgers -4.5 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.1 pts toward opponents | L 32–35 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. WisconsinHome | Rutgers -4 | Rutgers -1.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 7–42 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | at NebraskaAway | Rutgers +7 | Rutgers +6.5 | 1.0 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Rutgers | L 7–14 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. WashingtonHome | Rutgers -0.5 | Rutgers -1.5 | 0.5 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Rutgers | W 21–18 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at Virginia TechAway | Rutgers +7 | Rutgers +3.5 | 3.8 pts toward Rutgers | 1.8 pts toward Rutgers | 2.0 pts toward Rutgers | W 26–23 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. HowardHome | Rutgers -23 | Rutgers -38.5 | 15.5 pts toward Rutgers | 2.5 pts toward Rutgers | 13.0 pts toward Rutgers | W 44–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. MarylandHome | Rutgers +2.5 | Rutgers +2 | 0.6 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Rutgers | L 24–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Penn StateAway | Rutgers +23 | Rutgers +19.5 | 3.6 pts toward Rutgers | 2.3 pts toward Rutgers | 1.3 pts toward Rutgers | L 6–27 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W11 | at IowaAway | Rutgers +3 | Rutgers +1 | 2.1 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Rutgers | L 0–22 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Rutgers +21 | Rutgers +19 | 2.0 pts toward Rutgers | 3.3 pts toward Rutgers | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 16–35 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | at IndianaAway | Rutgers -7.5 | Rutgers -6 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 31–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Rutgers -7 | Rutgers -4.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | at WisconsinAway | Rutgers +13.5 | Rutgers +13 | 0.3 pts toward Rutgers | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.4 pts toward Rutgers | L 13–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. WagnerHome | Rutgers -50 | Rutgers -46 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 52–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W4 | at MichiganAway | Rutgers +19.5 | Rutgers +24 | 4.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.7 pts toward opponents | L 7–31 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Rutgers -6 | Rutgers -6.5 | 0.6 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Rutgers | W 35–16 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Rutgers -8 | Rutgers -6.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 24–7 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2022 · W13 | at MarylandAway | Rutgers +15 | Rutgers +14.5 | 0.5 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Rutgers | L 0–37 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Penn StateHome | Rutgers +20.5 | Rutgers +18.5 | 2.2 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Rutgers | L 10–55 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at Michigan StateAway | Rutgers +12 | Rutgers +10 | 2.1 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Rutgers | L 21–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. MichiganHome | Rutgers +27 | Rutgers +26.5 | 0.4 pts toward Rutgers | 3.1 pts toward Rutgers | 2.7 pts toward opponents | L 17–52 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W9 | at MinnesotaAway | Rutgers +18 | Rutgers +14 | 3.8 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 3.8 pts toward Rutgers | L 0–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. IndianaHome | Rutgers -0.5 | Rutgers -3 | 2.5 pts toward Rutgers | 1.1 pts toward Rutgers | 1.4 pts toward Rutgers | W 24–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. NebraskaHome | Rutgers +3.5 | Rutgers +3 | 0.6 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Rutgers | L 13–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at Ohio StateAway | Rutgers +38.5 | Rutgers +39 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 5.1 pts toward Rutgers | 5.7 pts toward opponents | L 10–49 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. IowaHome | Rutgers +13 | Rutgers +7.5 | 5.6 pts toward Rutgers | None identified | 5.6 pts toward Rutgers | L 10–27 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. WagnerHome | Rutgers -45 | Rutgers -48.5 | 3.4 pts toward Rutgers | 1.9 pts toward opponents | 5.3 pts toward Rutgers | W 66–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | at Boston CollegeAway | Rutgers +7.5 | Rutgers +9 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 22–21 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.