Offense#44
+3.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.15 #84 FBSSuccess rate43.0% #60 FBS
Big Ten · #48 of 138
Northwestern
Implied Strength+5.5vs. FBS average · ±4.8
Record1–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility55%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule23rdof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. ColoradoWeek 3 · OV Line NU -7.5 · 73% win chance →Toughest remaining test#1 Ohio StateWeek 11 · 2% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.9 rating points.
Defense#52
+1.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.17 #80 FBSSuccess rate allowed45.1% #123 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Northwestern's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.7 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 55.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.6%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.6% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large0.6%
Outside field99.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Northwestern. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production88.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class79thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production39thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.4Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
South Dakota State at Northwestern · Evanston, IL · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Northwestern through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS49%21–22–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.2 pts58% inside 3 points · 26 of 45
Factor coverage47%21 of 45 games
Factor signals85% aligned17 of 20 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Northwestern games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 9 | 3.0 pts toward Northwestern | 89%8 of 9 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 4 | 0.7 pts toward Northwestern | 100%4 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at IllinoisAway | Northwestern +12 | Northwestern +7 | 5.2 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 5.2 pts toward Northwestern | L 13–20 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. MinnesotaNeutral | Northwestern -0.5 | Northwestern -4 | 3.6 pts toward Northwestern | 1.5 pts toward Northwestern | 2.0 pts toward Northwestern | W 38–35 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. MichiganNeutral | Northwestern +14 | Northwestern +10 | 4.2 pts toward Northwestern | 1.5 pts toward Northwestern | 2.7 pts toward Northwestern | L 22–24 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W11 | at USCAway | Northwestern +20.5 | Northwestern +14.5 | 5.9 pts toward Northwestern | 1.8 pts toward Northwestern | 4.0 pts toward Northwestern | L 17–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at NebraskaAway | Northwestern +13.5 | Northwestern +7 | 6.6 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 6.6 pts toward Northwestern | L 21–28 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. PurdueHome | Northwestern -7 | Northwestern -3.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.4 pts toward opponents | W 19–0 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Penn StateAway | Northwestern +27 | Northwestern +20.5 | 6.6 pts toward Northwestern | 3.5 pts toward Northwestern | 3.1 pts toward Northwestern | W 22–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. UL MonroeHome | Northwestern -17.5 | Northwestern -12.5 | 5.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.2 pts toward opponents | W 42–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. UCLAHome | Northwestern -5 | Northwestern -6 | 0.8 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Northwestern | W 17–14 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. OregonHome | Northwestern +34 | Northwestern +25.5 | 8.7 pts toward Northwestern | 4.9 pts toward Northwestern | 3.9 pts toward Northwestern | L 14–34 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Western IllinoisHome | Northwestern -29 | Northwestern -31 | 2.2 pts toward Northwestern | 1.6 pts toward Northwestern | 0.6 pts toward Northwestern | W 42–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at TulaneAway | Northwestern +5 | Northwestern +6.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 3–23 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. IllinoisNeutral | Northwestern +7 | Northwestern +9 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 28–38 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W13 | at MichiganAway | Northwestern +12 | Northwestern +10.5 | 1.5 pts toward Northwestern | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward Northwestern | L 6–50 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. Ohio StateNeutral | Northwestern +32 | Northwestern +28.5 | 3.6 pts toward Northwestern | 3.4 pts toward Northwestern | 0.2 pts toward Northwestern | L 7–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W10 | at PurdueAway | Northwestern -6 | Northwestern +3 | 9.0 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 7.9 pts toward opponents | W 26–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | at IowaAway | Northwestern +15.5 | Northwestern +16.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 14–40 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. WisconsinNeutral | Northwestern +8 | Northwestern +9.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 3–23 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at MarylandAway | Northwestern +10.5 | Northwestern +11 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward Northwestern | W 37–10 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. IndianaNeutral | Northwestern +13 | Northwestern +12.5 | 0.7 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Northwestern | L 24–41 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at WashingtonAway | Northwestern +12.5 | Northwestern +12 | 0.6 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Northwestern | L 5–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. Eastern IllinoisNeutral | Northwestern -26 | Northwestern -26.5 | 0.7 pts toward Northwestern | 1.3 pts toward Northwestern | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 31–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. DukeNeutral | Northwestern -2.5 | Northwestern -2.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 20–26 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | at IllinoisAway | Northwestern +6 | Northwestern +5.5 | 0.4 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Northwestern | W 45–43 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. PurdueHome | Northwestern +2 | Northwestern -2.5 | 4.3 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 4.3 pts toward Northwestern | W 23–15 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at WisconsinAway | Northwestern +16.5 | Northwestern +12 | 4.5 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 4.5 pts toward Northwestern | W 24–10 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. IowaNeutral | Northwestern +13.5 | Northwestern +5 | 8.3 pts toward Northwestern | 1.0 pts toward Northwestern | 7.2 pts toward Northwestern | L 7–10 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. MarylandHome | Northwestern +15.5 | Northwestern +14 | 1.4 pts toward Northwestern | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.2 pts toward Northwestern | W 33–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | at NebraskaAway | Northwestern +10 | Northwestern +10.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 9–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. HowardHome | Northwestern -26 | Northwestern -23 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward Northwestern | 4.5 pts toward opponents | W 23–20 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. Penn StateHome | Northwestern +27 | Northwestern +27 | 0.1 pts toward Northwestern | 2.7 pts toward Northwestern | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 13–41 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. MinnesotaHome | Northwestern +6.5 | Northwestern +11.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | W 37–34 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at DukeAway | Northwestern +11.5 | Northwestern +17 | 5.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.7 pts toward opponents | L 14–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | at RutgersAway | Northwestern +8 | Northwestern +6.5 | 1.6 pts toward Northwestern | No net direction | 1.6 pts toward Northwestern | L 7–24 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. IllinoisHome | Northwestern +13.5 | Northwestern +15 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 3–41 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at PurdueAway | Northwestern +14.5 | Northwestern +17.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | L 9–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at MinnesotaAway | Northwestern +19 | Northwestern +17 | 1.8 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Northwestern | L 3–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Northwestern +38.5 | Northwestern +37.5 | 0.8 pts toward Northwestern | 5.0 pts toward Northwestern | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 7–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W9 | at IowaAway | Northwestern +14 | Northwestern +11.5 | 2.6 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Northwestern | L 13–33 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at MarylandAway | Northwestern +18 | Northwestern +14.5 | 3.7 pts toward Northwestern | 1.8 pts toward Northwestern | 1.9 pts toward Northwestern | L 24–31 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. WisconsinHome | Northwestern +18.5 | Northwestern +10 | 8.7 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 8.7 pts toward Northwestern | L 7–42 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at Penn StateAway | Northwestern +26.5 | Northwestern +25.5 | 0.8 pts toward Northwestern | 3.0 pts toward Northwestern | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 7–17 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Southern IllinoisHome | Northwestern -11.5 | Northwestern -13.5 | 2.2 pts toward Northwestern | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Northwestern | L 24–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. DukeHome | Northwestern -3 | Northwestern -10 | 7.1 pts toward Northwestern | 1.0 pts toward Northwestern | 6.1 pts toward Northwestern | L 23–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. NebraskaNeutral | Northwestern +11 | Northwestern +12.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 31–28 | W | None identified |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.