Colorado at Northwestern

Week 3 · Sep 19Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Evanston, IL

Matchup View

Opening LineNorthwestern -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusNorthwestern -3.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNorthwestern -7.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward NorthwesternOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNorthwestern -8.5Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward ColoradoExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNorthwestern -7.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward NorthwesternOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Northwestern -8.5Opening Market ConsensusNorthwestern -4.5Unexplained at open~4 pts toward ColoradoSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Northwestern -8.5Current Market ConsensusNorthwestern -3.5Unexplained gap~5 pts toward ColoradoExplore similar gaps Northwestern has extra rest~1 pt toward Northwestern

Northwestern has extra rest

~1 pt toward Northwestern

Northwestern has 6.8 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Northwestern; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Northwestern faces materially stronger Indiana in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Colorado was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Colorado enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Colorado 27.2%Northwestern 72.8%

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Compare Teams

ColoradoVSNorthwestern

Model View

Overall Rating+0.3 · #67+5.5 · #48
Offense Rating-0.8+3.7
Defense Rating+1.1+1.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.080.15
Offense Success Rate34.9%43.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.17
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.3%45.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.05.4
Playoff Odds0.3%0.6%
Strength of Schedule Rank27th23rd