Offense#76
-0.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.08 #112 FBSSuccess rate34.9% #130 FBS
Big 12 · #67 of 138
Colorado
Implied Strength+0.3vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility31%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule27thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat NorthwesternWeek 3 · OV Line COLO +7.5 · 27% win chance →Toughest remaining test#8 Texas TechWeek 5 · 6% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.0 rating points.
Defense#57
+1.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #94 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.3% #81 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Colorado's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (4.8 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 4 winsMedian 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 30.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.3%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.3% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large0.2%
Outside field99.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
14% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Colorado in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production13.7%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class3rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production81stof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.0Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover
Colorado at Georgia Tech · Atlanta, GA · Bobby Dodd Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Colorado through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS49%22–23–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts61% inside 3 points · 28 of 46
Factor coverage41%19 of 46 games
Factor signals78% aligned14 of 18 individual observations · 2 neutral
Historical sample46 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Colorado games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 10 | 2.7 pts toward Colorado | 80%8 of 10 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.2 pts toward Colorado | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 2 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 46 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Kansas StateAway | Colorado +14 | Colorado +16.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | L 14–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Colorado +6.5 | Colorado +7 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Colorado | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 17–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at West VirginiaAway | Colorado -0.5 | Colorado +6.5 | 7.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.1 pts toward opponents | L 22–29 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. ArizonaHome | Colorado +1.5 | Colorado +3.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 17–52 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at UtahAway | Colorado +19 | Colorado +14 | 5.1 pts toward Colorado | 1.7 pts toward Colorado | 3.4 pts toward Colorado | L 7–53 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Colorado +5 | Colorado +3 | 2.0 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Colorado | W 24–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at TCUAway | Colorado +13 | Colorado +13.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 21–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. BYUHome | Colorado +9 | Colorado +6.5 | 2.4 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Colorado | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. WyomingHome | Colorado -19 | Colorado -12.5 | 6.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.4 pts toward opponents | W 37–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at HoustonAway | Colorado +4.5 | Colorado +4 | 0.7 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Colorado | L 20–36 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. DelawareHome | Colorado -27.5 | Colorado -23.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 31–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Colorado +2.5 | Colorado +3.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 20–27 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Colorado -13.5 | Colorado -15 | 1.3 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Colorado | W 52–0 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. KansasNeutral | Colorado -3 | Colorado -1.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 21–37 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. UtahHome | Colorado -5 | Colorado -13.5 | 8.6 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 8.6 pts toward Colorado | W 49–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at Texas TechAway | Colorado -1 | Colorado -4.5 | 3.5 pts toward Colorado | 1.7 pts toward Colorado | 1.8 pts toward Colorado | W 41–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Colorado -5 | Colorado -6 | 0.9 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Colorado | W 34–23 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | at ArizonaAway | Colorado +3.5 | Colorado +2.5 | 1.2 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Colorado | W 34–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Colorado +5.5 | Colorado +3.5 | 2.0 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Colorado | L 28–31 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at UCFAway | Colorado +11.5 | Colorado +12.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward Colorado | W 48–21 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. BaylorHome | Colorado +6.5 | Colorado -2.5 | 8.8 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 8.8 pts toward Colorado | W 38–31 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | at NebraskaAway | Colorado +18 | Colorado +6.5 | 11.5 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 11.5 pts toward Colorado | L 10–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. North Dakota StateHome | Colorado -17.5 | Colorado -9.5 | 8.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.2 pts toward opponents | W 31–26 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | at UtahAway | Colorado +15.5 | Colorado +21.5 | 6.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.1 pts toward opponents | L 17–23 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Washington StateAway | Colorado +7 | Colorado +4.5 | 2.5 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Colorado | L 14–56 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. ArizonaHome | Colorado +6 | Colorado +8 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Colorado +12 | Colorado +13.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 19–26 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at UCLAAway | Colorado +16 | Colorado +14 | 1.8 pts toward Colorado | 1.8 pts toward Colorado | No net direction | L 16–28 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. StanfordHome | Colorado -11.5 | Colorado -13 | 1.7 pts toward Colorado | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward Colorado | L 43–46 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | at Arizona StateAway | Colorado -8 | Colorado -3 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.8 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. USCHome | Colorado +23.5 | Colorado +21.5 | 1.9 pts toward Colorado | 2.4 pts toward Colorado | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 41–48 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W4 | at OregonAway | Colorado +28 | Colorado +21 | 6.8 pts toward Colorado | 2.8 pts toward Colorado | 4.1 pts toward Colorado | L 6–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. NebraskaHome | Colorado +5 | Colorado -3 | 7.8 pts toward Colorado | None identified | 7.8 pts toward Colorado | W 36–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | at TCUAway | Colorado +18.5 | Colorado +20.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 45–42 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. UtahHome | Colorado +34 | Colorado +30 | 4.2 pts toward Colorado | 4.3 pts toward Colorado | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 21–63 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W12 | at WashingtonAway | Colorado +29 | Colorado +30.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward Colorado | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 7–54 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W11 | at USCAway | Colorado +34.5 | Colorado +34.5 | 0.2 pts toward Colorado | 4.4 pts toward Colorado | 4.2 pts toward opponents | L 17–55 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. OregonHome | Colorado +29.5 | Colorado +31 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward Colorado | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 10–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Colorado +11.5 | Colorado +13 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 34–42 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at Oregon StateAway | Colorado +23 | Colorado +23 | 0.1 pts toward Colorado | 2.6 pts toward Colorado | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 9–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Colorado +14 | Colorado +15 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 20–13 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at ArizonaAway | Colorado +11 | Colorado +18 | 6.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.8 pts toward opponents | L 20–43 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. UCLAHome | Colorado +14.5 | Colorado +22 | 7.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.6 pts toward opponents | L 17–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | at MinnesotaAway | Colorado +30.5 | Colorado +28 | 2.7 pts toward Colorado | 3.7 pts toward Colorado | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | at Air ForceAway | Colorado +31 | Colorado +17.5 | 13.7 pts toward Colorado | 3.8 pts toward Colorado | 9.9 pts toward Colorado | L 10–41 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. TCUHome | Colorado +5.5 | Colorado +13.5 | 8.2 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 7.4 pts toward opponents | L 13–38 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 46 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.