Colorado at Georgia Tech

Week 1 · Sep 3Bobby Dodd Stadium · Atlanta, GA
Colorado2–0+0.3 vs. avg · #67
@
Georgia Tech0–2+2.8 vs. avg · #58

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia Tech -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusGeorgia Tech -6.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia Tech -8Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward ColoradoOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia Tech -7Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward ColoradoExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia Tech -8Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward ColoradoOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia Tech -7.5Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia Tech -7Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward ColoradoSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward ColoradoOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia Tech -7Current Market ConsensusGeorgia Tech -6.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward ColoradoExplore similar gaps Inexperienced starting QB~1 pt toward ColoradoAt open ~0.5 pts toward ColoradoIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Colorado

Inexperienced starting QB

~1 pt toward ColoradoAt open ~0.5 pts toward ColoradoIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Colorado
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Alberto Mendoza is expected to start at quarterback for Georgia Tech with only 25 career passing attempts. In 17 comparable FBS-FBS openers with a named starter below 50 career attempts, markets averaged about 0.9 points away from that team after ordinary game-flow context was accounted for.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Georgia Tech ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Georgia Tech faces materially stronger Tennessee in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Colorado lost the most recent meeting with Georgia Tech.

Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Colorado 14 · Georgia Tech 13
Pregame OV Line
Georgia Tech -8
Final recorded market
Georgia Tech -6.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia Tech -7
Actual margin
Colorado by 1

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Colorado 28.1%Georgia Tech 71.9%

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Compare Teams

ColoradoVSGeorgia Tech

Model View

Overall Rating+0.3 · #67+2.8 · #58
Offense Rating-0.8+3.1
Defense Rating+1.1-0.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.080.27
Offense Success Rate34.9%49.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.3%43.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.06.2
Playoff Odds0.3%0.3%
Strength of Schedule Rank27th39th