Offense#46
+3.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.27 #21 FBSSuccess rate49.1% #7 FBS
ACC · #58 of 138
Georgia Tech
Implied Strength+2.8vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility30%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule39thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. MercerWeek 3 · OV Line GT -24.5 · 94% win chance →Toughest remaining test#6 GeorgiaWeek 13 · 2% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.4 rating points.
Defense#65
-0.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #99 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.9% #102 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Georgia Tech's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (4.7 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 29.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.3%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.3% total
Auto-bid0.3%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Alberto Mendoza enters with limited established experience
Alberto Mendoza enters the season with only 25 career passing attempts. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
17 comparable openers averaged about 0.9 points away from the low-experience quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
13% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Georgia Tech in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production12.6%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class60thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production37thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover
Colorado at Georgia Tech · Atlanta, GA · Bobby Dodd Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Georgia Tech through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS55%24–20–1 against consensus
Average line gap4.0 pts47% inside 3 points · 21 of 45
Factor coverage49%22 of 45 games
Factor signals75% aligned18 of 24 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Georgia Tech games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 12 | 1.7 pts toward Georgia Tech | 92%11 of 12 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 9 | No net direction | 67%6 of 9 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 3 | 1.3 pts toward Georgia Tech | 33%1 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. GeorgiaNeutral | Georgia Tech +11.5 | Georgia Tech +16.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 9–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. PittsburghHome | Georgia Tech -5.5 | Georgia Tech -2.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | L 28–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Boston CollegeAway | Georgia Tech -14 | Georgia Tech -16.5 | 2.4 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.7 pts toward Georgia Tech | 0.7 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 36–34 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | at NC StateAway | Georgia Tech -5 | Georgia Tech -4.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 36–48 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at DukeAway | Georgia Tech +0.5 | Georgia Tech +3.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 27–18 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Georgia Tech -14 | Georgia Tech -14 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 35–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | at Wake ForestAway | Georgia Tech -14.5 | Georgia Tech -13 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 30–29 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. TempleHome | Georgia Tech -26.5 | Georgia Tech -24.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 45–24 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. ClemsonHome | Georgia Tech 0 | Georgia Tech +3 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Gardner-WebbHome | Georgia Tech -42 | Georgia Tech -37.5 | 4.6 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward Georgia Tech | 4.9 pts toward opponents | W 59–12 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at ColoradoAway | Georgia Tech -2.5 | Georgia Tech -3.5 | 1.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 27–20 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at GeorgiaAway | Georgia Tech +24.5 | Georgia Tech +17.5 | 7.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | 2.5 pts toward Georgia Tech | 4.7 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 42–44 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. NC StateHome | Georgia Tech -8.5 | Georgia Tech -7.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 30–29 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. MiamiHome | Georgia Tech +13.5 | Georgia Tech +9.5 | 4.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | 3.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 28–23 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | at Virginia TechAway | Georgia Tech +5.5 | Georgia Tech +11 | 5.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.5 pts toward opponents | L 6–21 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. Notre DameNeutral | Georgia Tech +11 | Georgia Tech +14 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 13–31 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W7 | at North CarolinaAway | Georgia Tech -2 | Georgia Tech -3.5 | 1.6 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 41–34 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. DukeHome | Georgia Tech -9.5 | Georgia Tech -10 | 0.3 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 24–14 | P | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W4 | at LouisvilleAway | Georgia Tech +25 | Georgia Tech +8.5 | 16.6 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.4 pts toward Georgia Tech | 15.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 19–31 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. VMIHome | Georgia Tech -45 | Georgia Tech -42.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 59–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W2 | at SyracuseAway | Georgia Tech +3 | Georgia Tech -3 | 6.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 6.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 28–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Florida StateNeutral | Georgia Tech +13 | Georgia Tech +10.5 | 2.5 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 24–21 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. GeorgiaHome | Georgia Tech +26 | Georgia Tech +24.5 | 1.3 pts toward Georgia Tech | 2.6 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 23–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. SyracuseHome | Georgia Tech -2 | Georgia Tech -6 | 3.9 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 31–22 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at ClemsonAway | Georgia Tech +18.5 | Georgia Tech +15.5 | 3.0 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 21–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at VirginiaAway | Georgia Tech -1.5 | Georgia Tech +1.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 45–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. North CarolinaHome | Georgia Tech +13.5 | Georgia Tech +12 | 1.5 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 46–42 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. Boston CollegeHome | Georgia Tech -6.5 | Georgia Tech -6 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 23–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at MiamiAway | Georgia Tech +21.5 | Georgia Tech +19 | 2.5 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.3 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 23–20 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W4 | at Wake ForestAway | Georgia Tech +3.5 | Georgia Tech +3.5 | 0.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 30–16 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at Ole MissAway | Georgia Tech +34 | Georgia Tech +17 | 16.9 pts toward Georgia Tech | 3.6 pts toward Georgia Tech | 13.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 23–48 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. South Carolina StateHome | Georgia Tech -33 | Georgia Tech -43 | 10.1 pts toward Georgia Tech | 0.9 pts toward Georgia Tech | 9.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 48–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. LouisvilleNeutral | Georgia Tech +10.5 | Georgia Tech +7.5 | 2.9 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.0 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.9 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 34–39 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W13 | at GeorgiaAway | Georgia Tech +41.5 | Georgia Tech +36.5 | 4.8 pts toward Georgia Tech | 5.6 pts toward Georgia Tech | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 14–37 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W12 | at North CarolinaAway | Georgia Tech +17 | Georgia Tech +21.5 | 4.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.4 pts toward opponents | W 21–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. MiamiHome | Georgia Tech +7.5 | Georgia Tech -2 | 9.7 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 9.7 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 14–35 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at Virginia TechAway | Georgia Tech +6 | Georgia Tech +4 | 1.8 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 28–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at Florida StateAway | Georgia Tech +19 | Georgia Tech +23.5 | 4.7 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 16–41 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. VirginiaHome | Georgia Tech +5.5 | Georgia Tech -3.5 | 8.9 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 8.9 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 9–16 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. DukeHome | Georgia Tech +4 | Georgia Tech +3.5 | 0.5 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 23–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at PittsburghAway | Georgia Tech +23 | Georgia Tech +21.5 | 1.6 pts toward Georgia Tech | 2.6 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 26–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W4 | at UCFAway | Georgia Tech +19.5 | Georgia Tech +21 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 10–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Ole MissHome | Georgia Tech +26 | Georgia Tech +17 | 9.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | 3.0 pts toward Georgia Tech | 6.2 pts toward Georgia Tech | L 0–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Western CarolinaHome | Georgia Tech -18.5 | Georgia Tech -24.5 | 6.0 pts toward Georgia Tech | None identified | 6.0 pts toward Georgia Tech | W 35–17 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. ClemsonNeutral | Georgia Tech +20 | Georgia Tech +24.5 | 4.4 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Georgia Tech | 6.2 pts toward opponents | L 10–41 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.