Offense#43
+3.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.25 #25 FBSSuccess rate45.8% #31 FBS
ACC · #52 of 138
Duke
Implied Strength+3.8vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility89%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule59thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. StanfordWeek 3 · OV Line DUKE -12 · 83% win chance →Toughest remaining test#7 MiamiWeek 11 · 4% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.6 rating points.
Defense#62
+0.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.22 #113 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.5% #96 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Duke's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (7.3 expected wins), with a 3% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 89.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
3.5%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached3.5% total
Auto-bid0.5%
At-large3.0%
Outside field96.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
17% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Duke in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production17.1%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class58thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production32ndof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.8Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Duke through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS56%23–18–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.2 pts53% inside 3 points · 23 of 43
Factor coverage28%12 of 43 games
Factor signals82% aligned9 of 11 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample43 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Duke games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 6 | 0.1 pts toward Duke | 83%5 of 6 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 1.3 pts toward Duke | 100%4 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.5 pts toward Duke | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 43 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. VirginiaNeutral | Duke +1.5 | Duke +3.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward Duke | 3.7 pts toward opponents | W 27–20 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Duke -8.5 | Duke -2.5 | 5.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.9 pts toward opponents | W 49–32 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at North CarolinaAway | Duke -7.5 | Duke -7 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 32–25 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. VirginiaHome | Duke -5 | Duke -5.5 | 0.6 pts toward Duke | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Duke | L 17–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at UConnAway | Duke -10 | Duke -7.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 34–37 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at ClemsonAway | Duke +9 | Duke +4 | 4.9 pts toward Duke | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Duke | W 46–45 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Duke -0.5 | Duke -3.5 | 3.1 pts toward Duke | 1.0 pts toward Duke | 2.0 pts toward Duke | L 18–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | at CaliforniaAway | Duke -3.5 | Duke -3.5 | 0.2 pts toward Duke | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Duke | W 45–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. NC StateHome | Duke -1 | Duke -3 | 2.2 pts toward Duke | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Duke | W 45–33 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at TulaneAway | Duke +8 | Duke +1.5 | 6.3 pts toward Duke | None identified | 6.3 pts toward Duke | L 27–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. IllinoisHome | Duke +11.5 | Duke +2.5 | 8.9 pts toward Duke | None identified | 8.9 pts toward Duke | L 19–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. ElonHome | Duke -33 | Duke -36.5 | 3.4 pts toward Duke | 2.4 pts toward Duke | 1.0 pts toward Duke | W 45–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | at Wake ForestAway | Duke -4 | Duke -3.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 23–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Duke +5 | Duke +2.5 | 2.7 pts toward Duke | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Duke | W 31–28 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at NC StateAway | Duke +2.5 | Duke +3 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 29–19 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | at MiamiAway | Duke +24 | Duke +21 | 3.1 pts toward Duke | 2.4 pts toward Duke | 0.7 pts toward Duke | L 31–53 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. Florida StateHome | Duke +0.5 | Duke -2.5 | 3.0 pts toward Duke | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Duke | W 23–16 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | at Georgia TechAway | Duke +9.5 | Duke +10 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Duke | L 14–24 | P | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. North CarolinaHome | Duke 0 | Duke +1.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 21–20 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. NorthwesternNeutral | Duke +2.5 | Duke +2.5 | 0.1 pts toward Duke | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Duke | W 26–20 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. ElonHome | Duke -24.5 | Duke -24.5 | No net direction | 2.5 pts toward Duke | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 26–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. PittsburghHome | Duke -9.5 | Duke -4.5 | 5.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.0 pts toward opponents | W 30–19 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at VirginiaAway | Duke -11.5 | Duke -3.5 | 8.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.0 pts toward opponents | L 27–30 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at North CarolinaAway | Duke +7 | Duke +10 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | L 45–47 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Duke -13.5 | Duke -6.5 | 6.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.8 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at LouisvilleAway | Duke +1.5 | Duke +5 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 0–23 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | at Florida StateAway | Duke +14.5 | Duke +14 | 0.7 pts toward Duke | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Duke | L 20–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. NC StateHome | Duke -10 | Duke -3.5 | 6.6 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Duke | 7.6 pts toward opponents | W 24–3 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. Notre DameHome | Duke +6.5 | Duke +5.5 | 0.8 pts toward Duke | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Duke | L 14–21 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Duke -11.5 | Duke -17 | 5.7 pts toward Duke | None identified | 5.7 pts toward Duke | W 38–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. LafayetteHome | Duke -45.5 | Duke -42 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 42–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. ClemsonHome | Duke +13.5 | Duke +12.5 | 1.1 pts toward Duke | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Duke | W 28–7 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Duke +7.5 | Duke +3 | 4.5 pts toward Duke | None identified | 4.5 pts toward Duke | W 34–31 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at PittsburghAway | Duke +9 | Duke +6.5 | 2.3 pts toward Duke | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Duke | L 26–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Duke -7.5 | Duke -10 | 2.3 pts toward Duke | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Duke | W 24–7 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at Boston CollegeAway | Duke -5 | Duke -12 | 6.8 pts toward Duke | 1.8 pts toward Duke | 5.1 pts toward Duke | W 38–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | at MiamiAway | Duke +11.5 | Duke +10 | 1.3 pts toward Duke | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Duke | W 45–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. North CarolinaHome | Duke +8.5 | Duke +7 | 1.7 pts toward Duke | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Duke | L 35–38 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at Georgia TechAway | Duke -4 | Duke -3.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 20–23 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. VirginiaHome | Duke +6.5 | Duke -2 | 8.6 pts toward Duke | None identified | 8.6 pts toward Duke | W 38–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at KansasAway | Duke +10 | Duke +7 | 2.9 pts toward Duke | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Duke | L 27–35 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. North Carolina A&THome | Duke -26 | Duke -30.5 | 4.3 pts toward Duke | 1.0 pts toward Duke | 3.3 pts toward Duke | W 49–20 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | at NorthwesternAway | Duke +3 | Duke +10 | 7.1 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 6.1 pts toward opponents | W 31–23 | W | Rest Differential |
Sample: 43 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.