Offense#77
-0.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.06 #122 FBSSuccess rate38.8% #112 FBS
ACC · #61 of 138
North Carolina
Implied Strength+1.6vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility46%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule31stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat ClemsonWeek 3 · OV Line UNC +9 · 24% win chance →Toughest remaining test#5 Notre DameWeek 5 · 4% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 3.4 rating points.
Defense#51
+2.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.15 #64 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.4% #67 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How North Carolina's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.4 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–8 winsBowl eligible 46.2%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.6%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.6% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large0.5%
Outside field99.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for North Carolina. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production27.8%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class61stof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production78thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.6Consensus preseason line
Final · Aug 29Suggested side did not cover
Neutral site · Dublin · Aviva Stadium — Aer Lingus College Football Classic
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
North Carolina through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS42%18–25–1 against consensus
Average line gap2.9 pts61% inside 3 points · 27 of 44
Factor coverage39%17 of 44 games
Factor signals56% aligned10 of 18 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in North Carolina games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 10 | No net direction | 50%5 of 10 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 0.4 pts toward North Carolina | 60%3 of 5 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 2 | 1.4 pts toward North Carolina | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward North Carolina | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at NC StateAway | North Carolina +12.5 | North Carolina +7 | 5.7 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 5.7 pts toward North Carolina | L 19–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. DukeHome | North Carolina +7.5 | North Carolina +7 | 0.4 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 0.4 pts toward North Carolina | L 25–32 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Wake ForestAway | North Carolina +7.5 | North Carolina +3.5 | 4.1 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 4.1 pts toward North Carolina | L 12–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. StanfordHome | North Carolina -7.5 | North Carolina -8.5 | 1.2 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 1.2 pts toward North Carolina | W 20–15 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. VirginiaHome | North Carolina +8 | North Carolina +11.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.4 pts toward opponents | L 16–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at CaliforniaAway | North Carolina +4 | North Carolina +7.5 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 18–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. ClemsonHome | North Carolina +10.5 | North Carolina +15.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.1 pts toward opponents | L 10–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at UCFAway | North Carolina +9.5 | North Carolina +7 | 2.6 pts toward North Carolina | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward North Carolina | L 9–34 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. RichmondHome | North Carolina -26.5 | North Carolina -24.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward North Carolina | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 41–6 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | at CharlotteAway | North Carolina -17 | North Carolina -16 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 20–3 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. TCUHome | North Carolina +4 | North Carolina +3.5 | 0.3 pts toward North Carolina | No net direction | 0.3 pts toward North Carolina | L 14–48 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. NC StateHome | North Carolina -6 | North Carolina -2 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | L 30–35 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at Boston CollegeAway | North Carolina -0.5 | North Carolina -2 | 1.5 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 1.5 pts toward North Carolina | L 21–41 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. Wake ForestHome | North Carolina -12.5 | North Carolina -10.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward North Carolina | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 31–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | at Florida StateAway | North Carolina +2 | North Carolina -2.5 | 4.6 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 4.6 pts toward North Carolina | W 35–11 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at VirginiaAway | North Carolina +3 | North Carolina +3.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward North Carolina | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 41–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. Georgia TechHome | North Carolina +2 | North Carolina +3.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 34–41 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. PittsburghHome | North Carolina +3 | North Carolina +2.5 | 0.4 pts toward North Carolina | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward North Carolina | L 24–34 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | at DukeAway | North Carolina 0 | North Carolina -1.5 | 1.4 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 1.4 pts toward North Carolina | L 20–21 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. North Carolina CentralHome | North Carolina -35.5 | North Carolina -37.5 | 1.9 pts toward North Carolina | 0.3 pts toward North Carolina | 1.6 pts toward North Carolina | W 45–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | at MinnesotaAway | North Carolina -1 | North Carolina -1.5 | 0.5 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 0.5 pts toward North Carolina | W 19–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | at NC StateAway | North Carolina -5.5 | North Carolina -2.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | L 20–39 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at ClemsonAway | North Carolina +5 | North Carolina +7.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | L 20–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. DukeHome | North Carolina -7 | North Carolina -10 | 3.1 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 3.1 pts toward North Carolina | W 47–45 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. CampbellHome | North Carolina -36 | North Carolina -45.5 | 9.6 pts toward North Carolina | 0.5 pts toward North Carolina | 9.1 pts toward North Carolina | W 59–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W9 | at Georgia TechAway | North Carolina -13.5 | North Carolina -12 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 42–46 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. VirginiaHome | North Carolina -23.5 | North Carolina -24 | 0.6 pts toward North Carolina | 4.1 pts toward opponents | 4.7 pts toward North Carolina | L 27–31 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. MiamiHome | North Carolina -2 | North Carolina -2.5 | 0.3 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 0.3 pts toward North Carolina | W 41–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. SyracuseHome | North Carolina -3 | North Carolina -9.5 | 6.6 pts toward North Carolina | 1.0 pts toward North Carolina | 5.6 pts toward North Carolina | W 40–7 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W4 | at PittsburghAway | North Carolina -4 | North Carolina -7 | 2.9 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 2.9 pts toward North Carolina | W 41–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. MinnesotaHome | North Carolina -6.5 | North Carolina -7 | 0.7 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 0.7 pts toward North Carolina | W 31–13 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. South CarolinaNeutral | North Carolina -1.5 | North Carolina +2.5 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward North Carolina | 5.0 pts toward opponents | W 31–17 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W14 | vs. ClemsonNeutral | North Carolina +9.5 | North Carolina +7.5 | 2.0 pts toward North Carolina | 1.8 pts toward North Carolina | 0.2 pts toward North Carolina | L 10–39 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. NC StateHome | North Carolina -2.5 | North Carolina -6.5 | 3.9 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 3.9 pts toward North Carolina | L 27–30 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Georgia TechHome | North Carolina -17 | North Carolina -21.5 | 4.4 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 4.4 pts toward North Carolina | L 17–21 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at Wake ForestAway | North Carolina +5.5 | North Carolina +4.5 | 1.1 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 1.1 pts toward North Carolina | W 36–34 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at VirginiaAway | North Carolina -7 | North Carolina -7.5 | 0.4 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 0.4 pts toward North Carolina | W 31–28 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. PittsburghHome | North Carolina -1 | North Carolina -2.5 | 1.6 pts toward North Carolina | 1.1 pts toward North Carolina | 0.5 pts toward North Carolina | W 42–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W7 | at DukeAway | North Carolina -8.5 | North Carolina -7 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | W 38–35 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at MiamiAway | North Carolina +1.5 | North Carolina +4 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. Virginia TechHome | North Carolina -9 | North Carolina -9.5 | 0.3 pts toward North Carolina | None identified | 0.3 pts toward North Carolina | W 41–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. Notre DameHome | North Carolina +6.5 | North Carolina -2.5 | 9.0 pts toward North Carolina | 1.1 pts toward North Carolina | 8.0 pts toward North Carolina | L 32–45 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W1 | at App StateAway | North Carolina -1.5 | North Carolina +3 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | W 63–61 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Florida A&MHome | North Carolina -30 | North Carolina -45 | 14.8 pts toward North Carolina | 2.5 pts toward North Carolina | 12.3 pts toward North Carolina | W 56–24 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.