Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
North Carolina was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySyracuse at North Carolina
Week 8 · Oct 24Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
North Carolina -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
North Carolina -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNorth Carolina -911-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
North Carolina -911-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward SyracuseExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
North Carolina enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
North Carolina has covered at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
North Carolina faces materially stronger Miami in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
North Carolina is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Miami.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Syracuse enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Syracuse enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Syracuse enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Syracuse lost the most recent meeting with North Carolina.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Syracuse lost the most recent meeting with North Carolina by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Syracuse 31 · North Carolina 30
- Pregame OV Line
- North Carolina -11.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- North Carolina -9
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Syracuse by 1
Observed 5h 17m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNorth Carolina -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
North Carolina -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNorth Carolina -8.5Earliest observed 3-book consensus
North Carolina -8.5Earliest observed 3-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Syracuse 19.0%North Carolina 81.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · North Carolina -9
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 24.