Offense#64
+0.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.05 #123 FBSSuccess rate39.0% #111 FBS
ACC · #66 of 138
Syracuse
Implied Strength+0.9vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility26%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule50thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat PittsburghWeek 3 · OV Line SYR +10 · 21% win chance →Toughest remaining test#5 Notre DameWeek 13 · 4% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#61
+0.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.27 #129 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.9% #119 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Syracuse's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (4.5 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 4 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 26.2%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.1% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large0.1%
Outside field99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Syracuse. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production35.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class57thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production80thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.5Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
New Hampshire at Syracuse · Syracuse, NY · JMA Wireless Dome
12:00 AM · Nov 21
Syracuse at Boston College · Chestnut Hill, MA · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Syracuse through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS47%14–16 against consensus
Average line gap3.5 pts60% inside 3 points · 18 of 30
Factor coverage23%7 of 30 games
Factor signals86% aligned6 of 7 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample30 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Syracuse games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 100%3 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 100%3 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.0 pts toward Syracuse | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 30 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 · W14 | vs. MiamiHome | Syracuse +15.5 | Syracuse +12 | 3.5 pts toward Syracuse | None identified | 3.5 pts toward Syracuse | W 42–38 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at CaliforniaAway | Syracuse +7.5 | Syracuse +10.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 33–25 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at Boston CollegeAway | Syracuse +1.5 | Syracuse +3 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 31–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Syracuse +5 | Syracuse +3.5 | 1.5 pts toward Syracuse | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Syracuse | W 38–31 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at PittsburghAway | Syracuse +7.5 | Syracuse +5 | 2.4 pts toward Syracuse | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Syracuse | L 13–41 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at NC StateAway | Syracuse -1 | Syracuse -1 | 0.2 pts toward Syracuse | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Syracuse | W 24–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. Holy CrossHome | Syracuse -21.5 | Syracuse -31 | 9.2 pts toward Syracuse | 1.3 pts toward Syracuse | 7.9 pts toward Syracuse | W 42–14 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. StanfordHome | Syracuse -9.5 | Syracuse -9.5 | 0.2 pts toward Syracuse | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Syracuse | L 24–26 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Syracuse -3 | Syracuse +3 | 6.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.1 pts toward opponents | W 31–28 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Syracuse -4 | Syracuse -2 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | W 35–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Georgia TechAway | Syracuse +2 | Syracuse +6 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 22–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. PittsburghNeutral | Syracuse +0.5 | Syracuse +3 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Syracuse | 3.7 pts toward opponents | W 28–13 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. Boston CollegeHome | Syracuse -6.5 | Syracuse -0.5 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.0 pts toward opponents | L 10–17 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at Virginia TechAway | Syracuse -1.5 | Syracuse +2.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | L 10–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at Florida StateAway | Syracuse +17 | Syracuse +18.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 3–41 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at North CarolinaAway | Syracuse +3 | Syracuse +9.5 | 6.6 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 5.6 pts toward opponents | L 7–40 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. ClemsonHome | Syracuse +5 | Syracuse +7 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 14–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at PurdueAway | Syracuse -19.5 | Syracuse -1 | 18.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 18.3 pts toward opponents | W 35–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. ColgateHome | Syracuse -38.5 | Syracuse -40 | 1.3 pts toward Syracuse | 1.2 pts toward Syracuse | 0.2 pts toward Syracuse | W 65–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at Boston CollegeAway | Syracuse -11.5 | Syracuse -10.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 32–23 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at Wake ForestAway | Syracuse +8 | Syracuse +9.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 35–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. Florida StateHome | Syracuse +4.5 | Syracuse +7 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 3–38 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at PittsburghAway | Syracuse +1.5 | Syracuse +3.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | L 9–19 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. Notre DameHome | Syracuse -0.5 | Syracuse +0.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 24–41 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at ClemsonAway | Syracuse +10 | Syracuse +14 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 21–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. NC StateHome | Syracuse +3 | Syracuse -3 | 6.1 pts toward Syracuse | 1.1 pts toward Syracuse | 5.0 pts toward Syracuse | W 24–9 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. WagnerHome | Syracuse -56.5 | Syracuse -54 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 6.5 pts toward opponents | 4.0 pts toward Syracuse | W 59–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. VirginiaHome | Syracuse -12 | Syracuse -9.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | W 22–20 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. PurdueHome | Syracuse +4 | Syracuse -1.5 | 5.4 pts toward Syracuse | None identified | 5.4 pts toward Syracuse | W 32–29 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. LouisvilleHome | Syracuse +6 | Syracuse +6 | 0.2 pts toward Syracuse | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Syracuse | W 31–7 | W | None identified |
Sample: 30 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.