Offense#37
+4.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.24 #27 FBSSuccess rate42.4% #67 FBS
ACC · #51 of 138
NC State
Implied Strength+3.9vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility72%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule67thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat VanderbiltWeek 3 · OV Line NCSU +5.5 · 33% win chance →Toughest remaining test#28 LouisvilleWeek 5 · 35% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 4.2 rating points.
Defense#63
-0.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #92 FBSSuccess rate allowed39.8% #49 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How NC State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.6 expected wins), with a 2% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 4–9 winsBowl eligible 72.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
2.0%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached2.0% total
Auto-bid0.5%
At-large1.4%
Outside field98.0%
Conference title0.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for NC State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production59.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class56thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production38thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.3Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
NC State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS48%20–22 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts62% inside 3 points · 26 of 42
Factor coverage36%15 of 42 games
Factor signals73% aligned11 of 15 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample42 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in NC State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 0.9 pts toward NC State | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.4 pts toward NC State | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.2 pts toward NC State | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 42 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. North CarolinaHome | NC State -12.5 | NC State -7 | 5.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.7 pts toward opponents | W 42–19 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Florida StateHome | NC State +6 | NC State +6.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 21–11 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at MiamiAway | NC State +19.5 | NC State +16.5 | 2.8 pts toward NC State | 1.7 pts toward NC State | 1.1 pts toward NC State | L 7–41 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Georgia TechHome | NC State +5 | NC State +4.5 | 0.5 pts toward NC State | None identified | 0.5 pts toward NC State | W 48–36 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at PittsburghAway | NC State +7 | NC State +5 | 2.0 pts toward NC State | 1.8 pts toward NC State | 0.2 pts toward NC State | L 34–53 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at Notre DameAway | NC State +21 | NC State +23.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward NC State | 5.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–36 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. CampbellHome | NC State -45 | NC State -42.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 56–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Virginia TechHome | NC State -7 | NC State -10 | 3.2 pts toward NC State | None identified | 3.2 pts toward NC State | L 21–23 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at DukeAway | NC State +1 | NC State +3 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 33–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at Wake ForestAway | NC State -5.5 | NC State -7.5 | 1.8 pts toward NC State | None identified | 1.8 pts toward NC State | W 34–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. VirginiaHome | NC State -0.5 | NC State -3 | 2.1 pts toward NC State | None identified | 2.1 pts toward NC State | W 35–31 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. East CarolinaHome | NC State -12.5 | NC State -13.5 | 0.9 pts toward NC State | No net direction | 0.9 pts toward NC State | W 24–17 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2024 · W14 | at North CarolinaAway | NC State +6 | NC State +2 | 4.0 pts toward NC State | None identified | 4.0 pts toward NC State | W 35–30 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at Georgia TechAway | NC State +8.5 | NC State +7.5 | 1.2 pts toward NC State | None identified | 1.2 pts toward NC State | L 29–30 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. DukeHome | NC State -2.5 | NC State -3 | 0.7 pts toward NC State | None identified | 0.7 pts toward NC State | L 19–29 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. StanfordHome | NC State -10 | NC State -9.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward NC State | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 59–28 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | at CaliforniaAway | NC State +9.5 | NC State +9.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 24–23 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. SyracuseHome | NC State +1 | NC State +1 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 17–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. Wake ForestHome | NC State -12 | NC State -4 | 8.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.2 pts toward opponents | L 30–34 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at ClemsonAway | NC State +14.5 | NC State +17.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 35–59 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. TennesseeNeutral | NC State +32 | NC State +10 | 22.2 pts toward NC State | 4.6 pts toward NC State | 17.5 pts toward NC State | L 10–51 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyNeutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Western CarolinaHome | NC State -35 | NC State -32.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward NC State | 4.0 pts toward opponents | W 38–21 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. North CarolinaHome | NC State +5.5 | NC State +2.5 | 3.2 pts toward NC State | None identified | 3.2 pts toward NC State | W 39–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Virginia TechAway | NC State -2 | NC State +2.5 | 4.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.4 pts toward opponents | W 35–28 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at Wake ForestAway | NC State -2.5 | NC State -2 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 26–6 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. MiamiHome | NC State +4 | NC State +6 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 20–6 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. ClemsonHome | NC State +11 | NC State +10 | 0.8 pts toward NC State | 1.1 pts toward NC State | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 24–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | at DukeAway | NC State +10 | NC State +3.5 | 6.6 pts toward NC State | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 7.6 pts toward NC State | L 3–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. LouisvilleHome | NC State +4 | NC State +3.5 | 0.6 pts toward NC State | None identified | 0.6 pts toward NC State | L 10–13 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at VirginiaAway | NC State -15.5 | NC State -8 | 7.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.6 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. VMIHome | NC State -48.5 | NC State -42.5 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 45–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. Notre DameHome | NC State +22 | NC State +7 | 14.8 pts toward NC State | 2.2 pts toward NC State | 12.6 pts toward NC State | L 24–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at North CarolinaAway | NC State +2.5 | NC State +6.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 30–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at LouisvilleAway | NC State +4.5 | NC State +4 | 0.3 pts toward NC State | None identified | 0.3 pts toward NC State | L 10–25 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. Boston CollegeHome | NC State -20.5 | NC State -18 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 20–21 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Wake ForestHome | NC State +0.5 | NC State +3 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | W 30–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. Virginia TechHome | NC State -19 | NC State -13.5 | 5.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.5 pts toward opponents | W 22–21 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at SyracuseAway | NC State -3 | NC State +3 | 6.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 5.0 pts toward opponents | L 9–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. Florida StateHome | NC State -3.5 | NC State -3.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 19–17 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at ClemsonAway | NC State +4 | NC State +6.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 20–30 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Texas TechHome | NC State -7.5 | NC State -10.5 | 2.9 pts toward NC State | None identified | 2.9 pts toward NC State | W 27–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Charleston SouthernHome | NC State -34.5 | NC State -45.5 | 11.1 pts toward NC State | 0.2 pts toward NC State | 10.8 pts toward NC State | W 55–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 42 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.