App State at NC State

Week 4 · Sep 26Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh, NC

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNC State -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNC State -139-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 7:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward App StateExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?App State 31 · NC State 41
Pregame OV Line
NC State -17
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
NC State -13
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
NC State by 10

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
App State 8.8%NC State 91.2%

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Open until scheduled kickoff

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Straight-up winner

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Compare Teams

App StateVSNC State

Model View

Overall Rating-11.1 · #105+0.7 · #69
Offense Rating-6.1+2.5
Defense Rating-5.1-1.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.100.24
Offense Success Rate40.9%42.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.180.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.8%39.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.17.3
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank125th69th