Offense#108
-5.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.10 #108 FBSSuccess rate40.9% #87 FBS
Sun Belt · #102 of 138
App State
Implied Strength-10.0vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility84%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule120thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. CharlotteWeek 3 · OV Line APP -15 · 88% win chance →Toughest remaining test#51 NC StateWeek 4 · 10% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#95
-4.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.18 #86 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.8% #116 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How App State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (7.2 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 84.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.3%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.3% total
Auto-bid0.2%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.7%
Conference title4.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for App State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production37.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class46thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production106thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.1Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
App State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS44%8–10 against consensus
Average line gap2.9 pts50% inside 3 points · 9 of 18
Factor coverage22%4 of 18 games
Factor signals75% aligned3 of 4 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample18 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in App State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 0.4 pts toward App State | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.8 pts toward App State | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 18 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Arkansas StateHome | App State -3.5 | App State +1.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.1 pts toward opponents | L 29–30 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. MarshallHome | App State 0 | App State +4 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 26–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at James MadisonAway | App State +20.5 | App State +21 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 10–58 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Georgia SouthernHome | App State -5 | App State -4.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 23–25 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Old DominionAway | App State +14 | App State +13.5 | 0.5 pts toward App State | None identified | 0.5 pts toward App State | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Coastal CarolinaHome | App State -9 | App State -10.5 | 1.3 pts toward App State | None identified | 1.3 pts toward App State | L 37–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Georgia StateAway | App State -6 | App State -3 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 41–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Oregon StateHome | App State +0.5 | App State -2 | 2.6 pts toward App State | None identified | 2.6 pts toward App State | W 27–23 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Boise StateAway | App State +18.5 | App State +16.5 | 2.0 pts toward App State | 1.8 pts toward App State | 0.3 pts toward App State | L 14–47 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at Southern MissAway | App State +0.5 | App State -3 | 3.5 pts toward App State | None identified | 3.5 pts toward App State | L 22–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. LindenwoodHome | App State -23.5 | App State -30.5 | 7.0 pts toward App State | 1.6 pts toward App State | 5.4 pts toward App State | W 20–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. CharlotteNeutral | App State -8.5 | App State -8.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 34–11 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at MarshallAway | App State -2 | App State -2 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 21–28 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at Coastal CarolinaAway | App State -6.5 | App State -3 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 28–35 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. Robert MorrisHome | App State -41.5 | App State -50 | 8.5 pts toward App State | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 9.1 pts toward App State | W 42–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. The CitadelHome | App State -35.5 | App State -39.5 | 4.2 pts toward App State | 0.1 pts toward App State | 4.1 pts toward App State | W 49–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | at Texas A&MAway | App State +20 | App State +18 | 2.0 pts toward App State | None identified | 2.0 pts toward App State | W 17–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. North CarolinaHome | App State +1.5 | App State -3 | 4.3 pts toward App State | None identified | 4.3 pts toward App State | L 61–63 | L | None identified |
Sample: 18 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.