Offense#92
-3.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.16 #75 FBSSuccess rate41.8% #76 FBS
Sun Belt · #106 of 138
South Alabama
Implied Strength-10.4vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility61%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule110thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. OhioWeek 3 · OV Line USA -3.5 · 61% win chance →Toughest remaining test#44 KentuckyWeek 4 · 6% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 4.2 rating points.
Defense#121
-7.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.24 #121 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.3% #95 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How South Alabama's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (6.0 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 60.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.1% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.9%
Conference title5.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for South Alabama. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production78.6%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class127thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production109thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.7Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
SE Louisiana at South Alabama · Mobile, AL · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
South Alabama through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS42%5–7 against consensus
Average line gap2.4 pts67% inside 3 points · 8 of 12
Factor coverage33%4 of 12 games
Factor signals25% aligned1 of 4 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in South Alabama games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 3.5 pts toward South Alabama | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | No net direction | 0%0 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Texas StateAway | South Alabama +10.5 | South Alabama +9.5 | 1.0 pts toward South Alabama | None identified | 1.0 pts toward South Alabama | L 26–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Southern MissHome | South Alabama 0 | South Alabama +2.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 42–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at UL MonroeAway | South Alabama -6 | South Alabama -4 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 26–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. LouisianaHome | South Alabama -7.5 | South Alabama -3.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 22–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Georgia StateAway | South Alabama -6.5 | South Alabama -6 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward South Alabama | 1.7 pts toward opponents | W 38–31 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Arkansas StateHome | South Alabama -9 | South Alabama -8.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 14–15 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at TroyAway | South Alabama +3.5 | South Alabama -2.5 | 6.0 pts toward South Alabama | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 7.0 pts toward South Alabama | L 24–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | at North TexasAway | South Alabama +14.5 | South Alabama +13 | 1.6 pts toward South Alabama | None identified | 1.6 pts toward South Alabama | L 22–36 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Coastal CarolinaHome | South Alabama -12.5 | South Alabama -14.5 | 2.0 pts toward South Alabama | None identified | 2.0 pts toward South Alabama | L 20–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at AuburnAway | South Alabama +31 | South Alabama +26.5 | 4.5 pts toward South Alabama | 4.2 pts toward South Alabama | 0.3 pts toward South Alabama | L 15–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. TulaneHome | South Alabama +10 | South Alabama +13.5 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.7 pts toward opponents | L 31–33 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Morgan StateHome | South Alabama -29.5 | South Alabama -28.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward South Alabama | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 38–21 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.