Louisiana Tech at South Alabama

Week 9 · Oct 31Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile, AL

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineLouisiana Tech -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -6.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana Tech -3.5Factor Adjustments~0.5 pts toward South AlabamaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineLouisiana Tech -3Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Louisiana TechExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana Tech -3.5Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward South AlabamaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Louisiana Tech -3Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -5.5Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward Louisiana TechSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Louisiana Tech -3Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -6.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward Louisiana TechExplore similar gaps South Alabama has extra rest~0.5 pts toward South Alabama

South Alabama has extra rest

~0.5 pts toward South Alabama

South Alabama has 3.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 0.6 points toward South Alabama; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

South Alabama enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence

South Alabama was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

South Alabama enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

South Alabama is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Louisiana Tech enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Louisiana Tech enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Louisiana Tech has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Louisiana Tech is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Louisiana Tech lost the most recent meeting with South Alabama.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Louisiana Tech lost the most recent meeting with South Alabama by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Louisiana Tech 35 · South Alabama 20
Pregame OV Line
Louisiana Tech -3.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Louisiana Tech -6.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Louisiana Tech -3
Actual margin
Louisiana Tech by 15

Observed 9h 25m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Louisiana Tech 61.2%South Alabama 38.8%

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Compare Teams

Louisiana TechVSSouth Alabama

Model View

Overall Rating-2.4 · #77-10.6 · #102
Offense Rating-2.7-3.2
Defense Rating+0.3-7.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.140.16
Offense Success Rate40.4%41.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.050.24
Defense Success Rate Allowed37.1%43.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.05.7
Playoff Odds0.8%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank91st109th