Offense#113
-6.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.14 #86 FBSSuccess rate40.4% #95 FBS
Sun Belt · #101 of 138
Louisiana Tech
Implied Strength-9.9vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility56%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule87thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat BaylorWeek 3 · OV Line LT +18 · 8% win chance →Toughest remaining test#47 BaylorWeek 3 · 8% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 3.0 rating points.
Defense#93
-3.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.05 #15 FBSSuccess rate allowed37.1% #19 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Louisiana Tech's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.8 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 55.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.1% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.9%
Conference title6.2%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Louisiana Tech. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production63.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class115thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production105thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.0Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech · Ruston, LA · Joe Aillet Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Louisiana Tech through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS67%8–4 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts50% inside 3 points · 6 of 12
Factor coverage42%5 of 12 games
Factor signals25% aligned1 of 4 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Louisiana Tech games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 4.2 pts toward Louisiana Tech | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward Louisiana Tech | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Missouri StateAway | Louisiana Tech -0.5 | Louisiana Tech +2.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 42–30 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. LibertyHome | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | Louisiana Tech +1.5 | 7.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.1 pts toward opponents | W 34–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Washington StateAway | Louisiana Tech +4.5 | Louisiana Tech +10 | 5.4 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 4.4 pts toward opponents | L 3–28 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at DelawareAway | Louisiana Tech -4 | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 1.6 pts toward Louisiana Tech | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Louisiana Tech | L 24–25 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Sam HoustonHome | Louisiana Tech -16 | Louisiana Tech -16.5 | 0.6 pts toward Louisiana Tech | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward Louisiana Tech | W 55–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Western KentuckyHome | Louisiana Tech -5 | Louisiana Tech -5 | No net direction | 0.8 pts toward Louisiana Tech | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 27–28 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at Kennesaw StateAway | Louisiana Tech -8 | Louisiana Tech -4.5 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.7 pts toward opponents | L 7–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at UTEPAway | Louisiana Tech +1.5 | Louisiana Tech -3.5 | 4.8 pts toward Louisiana Tech | None identified | 4.8 pts toward Louisiana Tech | W 30–11 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Southern MissHome | Louisiana Tech -7 | Louisiana Tech -3 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 30–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. New Mexico StateHome | Louisiana Tech -13 | Louisiana Tech -10 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 49–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at LSUAway | Louisiana Tech +30.5 | Louisiana Tech +36.5 | 5.8 pts toward opponents | 4.2 pts toward Louisiana Tech | 10.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–23 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. SE LouisianaHome | Louisiana Tech -15.5 | Louisiana Tech -14.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Louisiana Tech | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 24–0 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.