Offense#109
-5.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.09 #110 FBSSuccess rate41.9% #75 FBS
Sun Belt · #107 of 138
Arkansas State
Implied Strength-10.6vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility67%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule119thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat TCUWeek 3 · OV Line ARST +21 · 5% win chance →Toughest remaining test#39 TCUWeek 3 · 5% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 1.1 rating points.
Defense#100
-4.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #97 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.6% #98 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Arkansas State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (6.3 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 67.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.1% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.9%
Conference title6.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Arkansas State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production30.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class47thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production110thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
Arkansas State at Memphis · Memphis, TN · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Arkansas State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS58%7–5 against consensus
Average line gap2.4 pts83% inside 3 points · 10 of 12
Factor coverage42%5 of 12 games
Factor signals60% aligned3 of 5 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Arkansas State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 3 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas State | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at App StateAway | Arkansas State +3.5 | Arkansas State -1.5 | 5.1 pts toward Arkansas State | None identified | 5.1 pts toward Arkansas State | W 30–29 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. LouisianaHome | Arkansas State -0.5 | Arkansas State -2.5 | 1.9 pts toward Arkansas State | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Arkansas State | L 30–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Southern MissHome | Arkansas State +3.5 | Arkansas State +6.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 21–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | at TroyAway | Arkansas State +9.5 | Arkansas State +7.5 | 2.1 pts toward Arkansas State | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Arkansas State | W 23–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Georgia SouthernHome | Arkansas State -2 | Arkansas State +1 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward Arkansas State | 3.4 pts toward opponents | W 34–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at South AlabamaAway | Arkansas State +9 | Arkansas State +8.5 | 0.3 pts toward Arkansas State | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Arkansas State | W 15–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Texas StateHome | Arkansas State +8.5 | Arkansas State +14 | 5.7 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 4.0 pts toward opponents | W 31–30 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | at UL MonroeAway | Arkansas State +2 | Arkansas State +1.5 | 0.7 pts toward Arkansas State | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Arkansas State | L 16–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at Kennesaw StateAway | Arkansas State -2 | Arkansas State -4.5 | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas State | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas State | L 21–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Arkansas State +21 | Arkansas State +21 | 0.1 pts toward Arkansas State | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas State | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 16–24 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. ArkansasNeutral | Arkansas State +21 | Arkansas State +24 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas State | 5.5 pts toward opponents | L 14–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Southeast Missouri StateHome | Arkansas State -13.5 | Arkansas State -15.5 | 1.9 pts toward Arkansas State | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Arkansas State | W 42–24 | W | None identified |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.