High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Memphis ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyArkansas State at Memphis
Week 1 · Sep 5Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Memphis -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Memphis -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusMemphis -10.510-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDT
Memphis -10.510-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Arkansas StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Memphis faces materially stronger Boise State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Memphis is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Boise State.
Studied in 186 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Arkansas State lost the most recent meeting with Memphis.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Arkansas State lost the most recent meeting with Memphis by at least 14 points.
Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Arkansas State 24 · Memphis 42
- Pregame OV Line
- Memphis -11.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Memphis -10.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Memphis by 18
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMemphis -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Memphis -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMemphis -10.52-book consensus · CFBD fallback
Memphis -10.52-book consensus · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Arkansas State 20.3%Memphis 79.7%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Memphis -10.5
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