South Alabama at Arkansas State

Week 6 · Oct 8Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineArkansas State -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArkansas State -311-book consensus · observed Oct 8, 8:05 AM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Arkansas StateExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?South Alabama 56 · Arkansas State 49
Pregame OV Line
Arkansas State -1.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Arkansas State -3
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
South Alabama by 7

Observed 11h 24m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
South Alabama 45.1%Arkansas State 54.9%

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Open until scheduled kickoff

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Straight-up winner

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Compare Teams

South AlabamaVSArkansas State

Model View

Overall Rating-10.6 · #102-12.2 · #113
Offense Rating-3.2-6.7
Defense Rating-7.4-5.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.160.09
Offense Success Rate41.8%41.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.240.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed43.3%43.6%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.76.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank109th111th