UL Monroe at Arkansas State

Week 10 · Nov 7Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR

Matchup View

Opening LineArkansas State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusArkansas State -14.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArkansas State -13Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Arkansas StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArkansas State -14Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Arkansas StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineArkansas State -13Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Arkansas StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Arkansas State -14Opening Market ConsensusArkansas State -14.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Arkansas StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Arkansas State -14Current Market ConsensusArkansas State -14.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward Arkansas StateExplore similar gaps Arkansas State has extra rest~1 pt toward Arkansas State

Arkansas State has extra rest

~1 pt toward Arkansas State

Arkansas State has 6.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Arkansas State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Arkansas State was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Arkansas State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Arkansas State is favored by 14.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Arkansas State lost the most recent meeting with UL Monroe.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Arkansas State faces materially stronger Coastal Carolina in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Trap game Inconclusive

Arkansas State is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Coastal Carolina.

Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe enters after losing its previous lined game by 14 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe is a 14.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

UL Monroe is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
UL Monroe 15.6%Arkansas State 84.4%

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Compare Teams

UL MonroeVSArkansas State

Model View

Overall Rating-22.8 · #135-12.2 · #113
Offense Rating-12.0-6.7
Defense Rating-10.8-5.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.080.09
Offense Success Rate37.0%41.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed40.7%43.6%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.66.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank107th111th