Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyArkansas State at Southern Miss
Week 7 · Oct 17M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Arkansas State -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arkansas State -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArkansas State -6.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Arkansas State -6.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward Arkansas StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after losing its previous lined game by 21 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Southern Miss is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arkansas State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Arkansas State was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Arkansas State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Arkansas State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Arkansas State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Arkansas State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
Arkansas State is favored in a game with a consensus total of 62.2.
Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Arkansas State lost the most recent meeting with Southern Miss.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Arkansas State faces materially stronger Georgia State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Arkansas State 23 · Southern Miss 13
- Pregame OV Line
- Arkansas State -4.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Arkansas State -6.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Arkansas State by 10
Observed 9h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineArkansas State -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arkansas State -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusArkansas State -7Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Arkansas State -7Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Arkansas State 63.6%Southern Miss 36.4%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Arkansas State -6.5
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