Offense#122
-8.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.16 #71 FBSSuccess rate39.5% #108 FBS
Sun Belt · #126 of 138
Southern Miss
Implied Strength-17.8vs. FBS average · ±4.2
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility15%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule96thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. UConnWeek 3 · OV Line USM +3.5 · 39% win chance →Toughest remaining test#78 James MadisonWeek 10 · 16% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.6 rating points.
Defense#129
-9.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.12 #54 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.5% #69 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Southern Miss's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–8 (3.8 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 3 winsMedian 4 winsCentral 80% 2–6 winsBowl eligible 15.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production90.2%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class13thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production127thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.7Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Southern Miss through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS45%5–6–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.2 pts50% inside 3 points · 6 of 12
Factor coverage17%2 of 12 games
Factor signals100% aligned1 of 1 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Southern Miss games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.8 pts toward Southern Miss | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. TroyHome | Southern Miss -6.5 | Southern Miss -7 | 0.3 pts toward Southern Miss | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Southern Miss | L 18–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at South AlabamaAway | Southern Miss 0 | Southern Miss -2.5 | 2.5 pts toward Southern Miss | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Southern Miss | L 35–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Texas StateHome | Southern Miss -4 | Southern Miss -3 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 14–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at Arkansas StateAway | Southern Miss -3.5 | Southern Miss -6.5 | 2.9 pts toward Southern Miss | 1.8 pts toward Southern Miss | 1.1 pts toward Southern Miss | W 27–21 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. UL MonroeHome | Southern Miss -12.5 | Southern Miss -14 | 1.6 pts toward Southern Miss | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Southern Miss | W 49–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at LouisianaAway | Southern Miss +1 | Southern Miss -4.5 | 5.6 pts toward Southern Miss | None identified | 5.6 pts toward Southern Miss | W 22–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Georgia SouthernAway | Southern Miss +3 | Southern Miss -3 | 6.1 pts toward Southern Miss | None identified | 6.1 pts toward Southern Miss | W 38–35 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Jacksonville StateHome | Southern Miss -2.5 | Southern Miss -4.5 | 1.8 pts toward Southern Miss | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Southern Miss | W 42–25 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at Louisiana TechAway | Southern Miss +7 | Southern Miss +3 | 3.9 pts toward Southern Miss | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Southern Miss | L 20–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. App StateHome | Southern Miss -0.5 | Southern Miss +3 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 38–22 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Jackson StateHome | Southern Miss -9 | Southern Miss -13.5 | 4.6 pts toward Southern Miss | None identified | 4.6 pts toward Southern Miss | W 38–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Southern Miss +9.5 | Southern Miss +14.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 17–34 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.