Close-win regression Developing estimate
Auburn enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 624 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySouthern Miss at Auburn
Week 2 · Sep 12Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn, AL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Auburn -31Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Auburn -31Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusAuburn -33.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Auburn -33.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward AuburnExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Auburn is favored by 33.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Auburn begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Auburn faces materially stronger Florida in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Auburn is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Florida.
Studied in 186 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss is a 33.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Southern Miss lost the most recent meeting with Auburn.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Southern Miss 8 · Auburn 43
- Pregame OV Line
- Auburn -31
- Final recorded market
- Auburn -33.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Auburn by 35
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineAuburn -31Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Auburn -31Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusAuburn -30Based on 2 books
Auburn -30Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Southern Miss 0.8%Auburn 99.2%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Auburn -33.5
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