Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Troy enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySouthern Miss at Troy
Week 6 · Oct 6Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy, AL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Troy -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Troy -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTroy -10.511-book consensus · observed Oct 5, 4:00 PM EDT
Troy -10.511-book consensus · observed Oct 5, 4:00 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward Southern MissExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Troy enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Troy is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Troy faces materially stronger Louisiana in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Troy is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Louisiana.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Southern Miss lost the most recent meeting with Troy.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Southern Miss is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Southern Miss 34 · Troy 55
- Pregame OV Line
- Troy -14.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Troy -10.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Troy by 21
Observed 27h 59m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTroy -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Troy -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTroy -10Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Troy -10Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Southern Miss 13.4%Troy 86.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Troy -10.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 6.