Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLouisiana at Southern Miss
Week 8 · Oct 24M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Louisiana -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisiana -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisiana -1011-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Louisiana -1011-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Southern MissExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Southern Miss is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Louisiana enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Louisiana enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Louisiana is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Louisiana lost the most recent meeting with Southern Miss.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Louisiana 31 · Southern Miss 35
- Pregame OV Line
- Louisiana -11
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Louisiana -10
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Southern Miss by 4
Observed 2h 47m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineLouisiana -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisiana -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana -10.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Louisiana -10.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Louisiana 80.6%Southern Miss 19.4%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Louisiana -10
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