Offense#95
-3.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.11 #98 FBSSuccess rate38.5% #114 FBS
Sun Belt · #97 of 138
Louisiana
Implied Strength-8.7vs. FBS average · ±3.6
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility88%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule128thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. UABWeek 3 · OV Line UL -8.5 · 75% win chance →Toughest remaining test#96 TroyWeek 7 · 58% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.9 rating points.
Defense#102
-5.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.20 #100 FBSSuccess rate allowed46.2% #125 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Louisiana's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 8–4 (7.6 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 8 winsCentral 80% 5–10 winsBowl eligible 88.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.3%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.3% total
Auto-bid0.3%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.7%
Conference title11.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Louisiana. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production91.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class132ndof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production70thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.4Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Louisiana through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS53%8–7 against consensus
Average line gap3.1 pts60% inside 3 points · 9 of 15
Factor coverage40%6 of 15 games
Factor signals67% aligned4 of 6 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample15 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Louisiana games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 3.2 pts toward Louisiana | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.4 pts toward Louisiana | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 2 | 0.1 pts toward Louisiana | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Research candidate |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 15 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. UL MonroeHome | Louisiana -12.5 | Louisiana -11 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 30–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Arkansas StateAway | Louisiana +0.5 | Louisiana +2.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 34–30 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Texas StateHome | Louisiana +2 | Louisiana +3.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 42–39 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | at South AlabamaAway | Louisiana +7.5 | Louisiana +3.5 | 3.9 pts toward Louisiana | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Louisiana | W 31–22 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at TroyAway | Louisiana +9.5 | Louisiana +7 | 2.3 pts toward Louisiana | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Louisiana | L 23–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Southern MissHome | Louisiana -1 | Louisiana +4.5 | 5.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.6 pts toward opponents | L 10–22 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at James MadisonAway | Louisiana +19 | Louisiana +18.5 | 0.4 pts toward Louisiana | 1.7 pts toward Louisiana | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 14–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. MarshallHome | Louisiana -4.5 | Louisiana +2.5 | 7.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.2 pts toward opponents | W 54–51 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at Eastern MichiganAway | Louisiana -8 | Louisiana -2.5 | 5.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.4 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at MissouriAway | Louisiana +28.5 | Louisiana +27.5 | 0.9 pts toward Louisiana | 3.7 pts toward Louisiana | 2.8 pts toward opponents | L 10–52 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. McNeeseHome | Louisiana -18.5 | Louisiana -19.5 | 1.0 pts toward Louisiana | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Louisiana | W 34–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. RiceHome | Louisiana -16 | Louisiana -9.5 | 6.4 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 5.8 pts toward opponents | L 12–14 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2022 · W12 | at Florida StateAway | Louisiana +24.5 | Louisiana +25 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward Louisiana | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 17–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W7 | at MarshallAway | Louisiana +5 | Louisiana +10.5 | 5.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.5 pts toward opponents | W 23–13 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. SE LouisianaHome | Louisiana -15 | Louisiana -13 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Louisiana | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 24–7 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 15 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.