Troy has extra rest
~1 pt toward TroyTroy has 4.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.0 points toward Troy; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
See the full studyTroy at Louisiana
Week 7 · Oct 17Cajun Field · Lafayette, LA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Louisiana -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisiana -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisiana -310-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Louisiana -310-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana -2→Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Troy→OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineLouisiana -1Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward LouisianaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana -2Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward TroyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Louisiana -1Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana -4.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward LouisianaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Louisiana -1Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisiana -3Unexplained gap~2 pts toward LouisianaExplore similar gaps Troy has extra rest~1 pt toward Troy
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Louisiana enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Louisiana enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Louisiana is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Louisiana lost the most recent meeting with Troy.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Troy enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Troy enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Troy is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Troy 6 · Louisiana 33
- Pregame OV Line
- Louisiana -2
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Louisiana -3
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- Louisiana -1
- Actual margin
- Louisiana by 27
Observed 7h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineLouisiana -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisiana -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana -4.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Louisiana -4.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana -2→Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Troy→OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineLouisiana -1Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward LouisianaOnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana -2Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward TroyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Louisiana -1Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana -4.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward LouisianaTroy has extra rest~1 pt toward Troy
Troy has extra rest
~1 pt toward TroyTroy has 4.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.0 points toward Troy; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
See the full studyPregame Win Probability
Troy 44.4%Louisiana 55.6%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Louisiana -3
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