Offense#135
-12.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play-0.01 #134 FBSSuccess rate35.3% #129 FBS
American Athletic · #137 of 138
Charlotte
Implied Strength-22.3vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility<0.01%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule82ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat App StateWeek 3 · OV Line CLT +15 · 12% win chance →Toughest remaining test#70 NavyWeek 13 · 7% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.4 rating points.
Defense#133
-9.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.23 #115 FBSSuccess rate allowed52.2% #136 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Charlotte's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 1–11 (1.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 1 winsCentral 80% 0–3 winsBowl eligible 0.4%Winless 27.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Charlotte. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production40.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class94thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production137thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total2.1Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
The Citadel at Charlotte · Charlotte, NC · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Charlotte through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS40%4–6–1 against consensus
Average line gap2.1 pts82% inside 3 points · 9 of 11
Factor coverage55%6 of 11 games
Factor signals71% aligned5 of 7 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Charlotte games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 4.9 pts toward Charlotte | 60%3 of 5 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | 1.1 pts toward Charlotte | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at TulaneAway | Charlotte +29.5 | Charlotte +31 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 4.0 pts toward Charlotte | 5.2 pts toward opponents | L 0–27 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W13 | at GeorgiaAway | Charlotte +50.5 | Charlotte +42.5 | 8.1 pts toward Charlotte | 9.7 pts toward Charlotte | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 3–35 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. UTSAHome | Charlotte +18 | Charlotte +17 | 1.2 pts toward Charlotte | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Charlotte | L 7–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at East CarolinaAway | Charlotte +30 | Charlotte +28 | 2.0 pts toward Charlotte | 5.8 pts toward Charlotte | 3.7 pts toward opponents | L 22–48 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. North TexasHome | Charlotte +23 | Charlotte +25.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Charlotte | 5.3 pts toward opponents | L 20–54 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. TempleHome | Charlotte +8 | Charlotte +9.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 14–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at South FloridaAway | Charlotte +29 | Charlotte +28 | 0.8 pts toward Charlotte | 3.8 pts toward Charlotte | 3.0 pts toward opponents | L 26–54 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. RiceHome | Charlotte +2.5 | Charlotte +1.5 | 1.0 pts toward Charlotte | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Charlotte | L 17–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. MonmouthHome | Charlotte -6.5 | Charlotte -2.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 42–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. North CarolinaHome | Charlotte +17 | Charlotte +16 | 1.2 pts toward Charlotte | 0.5 pts toward Charlotte | 0.7 pts toward Charlotte | L 3–20 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. App StateNeutral | Charlotte +8.5 | Charlotte +8.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 11–34 | L | None identified |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.