Memphis at Charlotte

Week 5 · Oct 3Jerry Richardson Stadium · Charlotte, NC

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineMemphis -19Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMemphis -20.510-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMemphis -19Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward MemphisOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMemphis -21Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward CharlotteExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMemphis -19Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward MemphisOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Memphis -21Opening Market ConsensusMemphis -20.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward CharlotteSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Memphis -21Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMemphis -20.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward CharlotteExplore similar gaps Memphis has extra rest~2 pts toward Memphis

Memphis has extra rest

~2 pts toward Memphis

Memphis has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Memphis; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Charlotte enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Charlotte enters after losing its previous lined game by 27 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Charlotte enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Charlotte enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Charlotte is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Charlotte is a 20.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Charlotte lost the most recent meeting with Memphis.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Memphis enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Memphis enters after losing its previous lined game by 18 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Memphis is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Memphis is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Memphis is favored by 20.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Memphis ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Memphis 59 · Charlotte 8
Pregame OV Line
Memphis -19
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Memphis -20.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Memphis -21
Actual margin
Memphis by 51

Observed 2h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Memphis 93.0%Charlotte 7.0%

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Compare Teams

MemphisVSCharlotte

Model View

Overall Rating+2.0 · #65-21.0 · #131
Offense Rating+1.4-11.7
Defense Rating+0.6-9.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.25-0.01
Offense Success Rate44.9%35.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.170.23
Defense Success Rate Allowed40.9%52.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.42.1
Playoff Odds2.0%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank93rd81st