Tulane at Charlotte

Week 9 · Oct 30Jerry Richardson Stadium · Charlotte, NC

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineTulane -17.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTulane -9.511-book consensus · observed Oct 29, 8:42 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineTulane -17.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward CharlotteOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineTulane -16.5Unexplained Gap~7 pts toward CharlotteExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineTulane -17.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward CharlotteOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Tulane -16.5Opening Market ConsensusTulane -10.5Unexplained at open~6 pts toward CharlotteSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Tulane -16.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTulane -9.5Unexplained gap~7 pts toward CharlotteExplore similar gaps Charlotte has extra rest~1 pt toward Charlotte

Charlotte has extra rest

~1 pt toward Charlotte

Charlotte has 7.3 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Charlotte; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Charlotte was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Charlotte enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Charlotte is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Charlotte lost the most recent meeting with Tulane.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Charlotte lost the most recent meeting with Tulane by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Tulane enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Tulane enters after losing its previous lined game by 23 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Tulane is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Tulane is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Tulane faces materially stronger Tulsa in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Trap game Inconclusive

Tulane is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Tulsa.

Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Tulane 38 · Charlotte 31
Pregame OV Line
Tulane -17.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Tulane -9.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Tulane -16.5
Actual margin
Tulane by 7

Observed 34h 17m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Tulane 90.9%Charlotte 9.1%

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Compare Teams

TulaneVSCharlotte

Model View

Overall Rating-7.1 · #93-21.0 · #131
Offense Rating-3.4-11.7
Defense Rating-3.7-9.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.20-0.01
Offense Success Rate44.7%35.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.150.23
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.6%52.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.12.1
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank83rd81st